MMA Prophecy
🌐BEST
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Choose a fight to analyse
KC SS Chimaev vs StricklandFight Card · Middleweight JV TT Van vs TairaFight Card · Flyweight AV WC Volkov vs Cortes-AcostaFight Card · Heavyweight SB JB Brady vs BuckleyFight Card · Welterweight KG JS Green vs StephensFight Card · Catchweight AG OD Gautier vs DiazPreliminary Card · Middleweight JÁ YA Álvarez vs AmosovPreliminary Card · Welterweight GD MR Dawson vs RębeckiPreliminary Card · Lightweight JM JG Miller vs GordonPreliminary Card · Lightweight RK MT Kopylov vs TulioEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight PS WG Sabatini vs GomisEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight BS DS Susurkaev vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight CC JO Carpenter vs OchoaEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Dawson v Rębecki Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Consensus84 picks · conf 80/99
Dawson 43
41 Rębecki
FMGMPF pick Dawson
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Dawson 23-3-1 VS 20-4 Rębecki
5'10" height 5'7"
156 lb weight 155 lb
72" reach 66"
32 age 33
Switch stance Southpaw
3.1 strikes landed / min 4.7
52% striking accuracy 48%
2.0 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
45% striking defence 54%
3.6 takedowns / 15 min 3.8
38% takedown accuracy 75%
57% takedown defence 45%
1.2 submissions / 15 min 0.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IN InsomniaMMA picks Mateusz Rębecki “go ahead and give me Mateusz Rębecki getting this Mateusz Rębecki man. I I love this guy. I [ __ ] love Mateusz Rębecki.”
PI PickemMMA picks Mateusz Rębecki “I'm going to go Mateusz Rębecki on this don't think Mateusz Rębecki is going to be easy round. I think her best the way Mateusz Rębecki Mateusz Rębecki in this one. I think Mateusz Rębecki can Osman Diaz. I'm picking Mateusz Rębecki by KO.”
SP SportsLine picks Grant Dawson “Grant Dawson on the money line.”
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE “give me Mateusz Rębecki by” $2.40
WP We Want Picks picks Mateusz Rębecki “I'm going to pick Mateusz Rębecki. I'm also going to put Mateusz Rębecki in my lineup”
UW Uncle Weezy picks Grant Dawson “Going with uh Grant Dawson KO.”
MT MMA Tugg picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE “Mateusz Rębecki is going to be a dog this week.”
RX RX picks Mateusz Rębecki “I'm going to go Mateusz Rębecki by knockout in second.”
AM Aniki MMA picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE “in this fight, I will be taking the underdog in Mateusz Rębecki”
TG The Fight Guy picks Grant Dawson “I'm gonna go Grant Dawson to win... So, with Grant Dawson to win a decision.”
RM Recon MMA picks Grant Dawson “wrestle Max his way to a decision victory”
AA All in Aidan picks Grant Dawson “taking Grant Dawson's moneyline”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Dawson23-3-1
W Rębecki Submission · R3 May '26
L Torres KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Ferreira Decision · R3 Jan '25
W García KO/TKO · R2 Oct '24
W Solecki Decision · R3 Jun '24
Rębecki20-4
L Dawson Submission · R3 May '26
L Klein Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Duncan Decision · R3 Aug '25
W Orolbai Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Ferreira KO/TKO · R3 May '24