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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Álvarez v Amosov Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus70 picks · conf 76/99
Álvarez 27
43 Amosov
MDMCST pick Álvarez
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Álvarez 23-3 VS 29-1 Amosov
6'3" height 6'0"
171 lb weight 171 lb
77" reach 75"
33 age 32
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.9 strikes landed / min —
62% striking accuracy —
4.4 strikes absorbed / min —
54% striking defence —
2.5 takedowns / 15 min —
37% takedown accuracy —
50% takedown defence —
0.8 submissions / 15 min —
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IN InsomniaMMA picks Yaroslav Amosov “I love Yaroslav Amosov. ... give me Yaroslav Amosov to get this round. Yaroslav Amosov is a [ __ ] great fight for Yaroslav Amosov.”
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Yaroslav Amosov “Yaroslav Amosov is going to get this one done” $1.54
WP We Want Picks picks Yaroslav Amosov “Yaroslav Amosov should win this fight”
BM Bozing MMA picks Yaroslav Amosov “Yaroslav Amosov by decision. I think we'll be with Yaroslav Amosov. I think I think I'll be able decision for Yaroslav Amosov.”
RR Rising the Ranks picks Yaroslav Amosov “He me Yaroslav Amosov by submission”
UW Uncle Weezy picks Joel Álvarez VALUE “I like Joel Álvarez from there... Fight picking uh Joel Álvarez... Joel Álvarez by KO is the pick” $2.15
RX RX picks Joel Álvarez “I'm going to go decision here for Joel.”
AM Aniki MMA picks Yaroslav Amosov “I'm going to be picking Yaroslav Amosov to win by submission”
TG The Fight Guy picks Joel Álvarez “Joel Álvarez has looked amazing going to go with Joel Álvarez. I think I'm going to go with Joel Álvarez to win”
RM Recon MMA picks Yaroslav Amosov VALUE “we're going to say he gets it done with a decision”
TH TheWeasle picks Yaroslav Amosov “So, I'm going go with Yaroslav Amosov.”
TM Third Hall MMA picks Joel Álvarez “I'm gonna pick Joel Álvarez to win. Yeah, we're just going to pick Joel Álvarez to Yaroslav Amosov.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Álvarez23-3
L Amosov Submission · R2 May '26
W Luque Decision · R3 Oct '25
W Klose KO/TKO · R1 Dec '24
W Brener KO/TKO · R3 Aug '24
W Diakiese Submission · R2 Jul '23
Amosov29-1
W Álvarez Submission · R2 May '26
W Magny Submission · R1 Dec '25