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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Gastelum v Luque
Middleweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Gastelum 21-10
VS
0-0 Luque
5'9"
height
5'11"
191 lb
weight
170 lb
71"
reach
76"
34
age
34
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
4.4
strikes landed / min
6.0
52%
striking accuracy
57%
4.9
strikes absorbed / min
4.0
74%
striking defence
55%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
1.4
32%
takedown accuracy
69%
86%
takedown defence
60%
1.2
submissions / 15 min
1.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
AN
antsworldd picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I'm gonna pick Kelvin Gastelum.”
antsworldd picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I'm gonna pick Kelvin Gastelum.”
CA
CasualMMA picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I think Kelvin Gastelum should have this pretty easy in my opinion.”
CasualMMA picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I think Kelvin Gastelum should have this pretty easy in my opinion.”
GM
GLO MMA picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I'm going to go and pick Kelvin Gastelum”
GLO MMA picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I'm going to go and pick Kelvin Gastelum”
ES
etoft21 sports picks Kelvin Gastelum
“I really don't think he's going to going to finish Gash. So, I do think we're just going to see a back and forth fight, leading me to think this fight is going to go the distance.”
$1.89
etoft21 sports picks Kelvin Gastelum
“I really don't think he's going to going to finish Gash. So, I do think we're just going to see a back and forth fight, leading me to think this fight is going to go the distance.”
$1.89
CH
ChasingCombat picks Vicente Luque VALUE
“I'm going to go with Vicente Luque by decision in this fight just because I do think he's way better than Kelvin”
ChasingCombat picks Vicente Luque VALUE
“I'm going to go with Vicente Luque by decision in this fight just because I do think he's way better than Kelvin”
PM
Pak MMA picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I'm picking NOT_IN_ROSTER_7 Kelvin Gastelum by KO just falls into the NOT_IN_ROSTER_7 Kelvin Gastelum trap”
Pak MMA picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I'm picking NOT_IN_ROSTER_7 Kelvin Gastelum by KO just falls into the NOT_IN_ROSTER_7 Kelvin Gastelum trap”
TS
The Sports Scientist picks Vicente Luque
“Either guy could win. Um but again, the safest bet here is uh is that this fight reaches round two... I think the safe bet here is to say that this fight reaches round two.”
The Sports Scientist picks Vicente Luque
“Either guy could win. Um but again, the safest bet here is uh is that this fight reaches round two... I think the safe bet here is to say that this fight reaches round two.”
CO
CozyBoyzMMA picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I think Kelvin Gastelum can get this done by knockout.”
CozyBoyzMMA picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I think Kelvin Gastelum can get this done by knockout.”
CO
CozyBoyzMMA picks Vicente Luque VALUE
“I think he could get it done against Kelvin Gastelum.”
CozyBoyzMMA picks Vicente Luque VALUE
“I think he could get it done against Kelvin Gastelum.”
RS
Round 3: Prediction Show picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I'm going NOT_IN_ROSTER_1 Kelvin Gastelum versus Vicente Luque. This So, give me Kelvin Gastelum.”
Round 3: Prediction Show picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I'm going NOT_IN_ROSTER_1 Kelvin Gastelum versus Vicente Luque. This So, give me Kelvin Gastelum.”
MO
MoonRockASMR picks Kelvin Gastelum
“I feel like Kelvin Gastelum's going to make this.”
MoonRockASMR picks Kelvin Gastelum
“I feel like Kelvin Gastelum's going to make this.”
KO
Kyle OHare picks Kelvin Gastelum
“that Kelvin Gastelum's going to win though. ... I'm I'm going to take uh Kelvin Gastelum Gastelin versus Vicente Luque.”
Kyle OHare picks Kelvin Gastelum
“that Kelvin Gastelum's going to win though. ... I'm I'm going to take uh Kelvin Gastelum Gastelin versus Vicente Luque.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Gastelum21-10
L
Luque
Apr '26
W
Stoltzfus
Sep '25
L
Pyfer
Jun '25
W
Rodriguez
Jun '24
L
Brady
Dec '23
Luque0-0
W
Gastelum
Apr '26
L
Álvarez
Oct '25
L
Holland
Jun '25
W
Gorimbo
Dec '24
L
Buckley
Mar '24