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Albazi vs HoriguchiMain Card · Flyweight
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Almeida vs KunievMain Card · Heavyweight
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Oleksiejczuk vs BarriaultMain Card · Middleweight
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Matsumoto vs BasharatMain Card · Bantamweight
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Jacoby vs WalkerMain Card · Light Heavyweight
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Morono vs DonchenkoPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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Brasil vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
WC
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Cong vs MouraPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Gafurov vs WikłaczPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Syguła vs CachoeiraPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Bautista v Oliveira
Bantamweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Bautista 16-3
VS
23-4 Oliveira
5'9"
height
5'9"
135 lb
weight
145 lb
69"
reach
70"
33
age
30
Switch
stance
Switch
5.3
strikes landed / min
5.9
47%
striking accuracy
43%
3.9
strikes absorbed / min
2.9
54%
striking defence
53%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
1.4
33%
takedown accuracy
60%
66%
takedown defence
68%
0.9
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TE
Teep_Muaythai picks Vinicius Oliveira
“I'll just pick Vinicius Oliveira by around Tokyo for the funsies.”
Teep_Muaythai picks Vinicius Oliveira
“I'll just pick Vinicius Oliveira by around Tokyo for the funsies.”
IM
Industry Plant MMA picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE
“Mario Bautista, I'm going Vinicius Oliveira”
Industry Plant MMA picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE
“Mario Bautista, I'm going Vinicius Oliveira”
MJ
Mukbang with jj picks Vinicius Oliveira
“Mario Bautista probably wins. Mario Bautista is actually probably like give me I think Vinicius Oliveira will KO I like Vinicius Oliveira's odds here.”
Mukbang with jj picks Vinicius Oliveira
“Mario Bautista probably wins. Mario Bautista is actually probably like give me I think Vinicius Oliveira will KO I like Vinicius Oliveira's odds here.”
MC
McManusMMA picks Mario Bautista
“I think Mario Bautista is going to win this fight”
McManusMMA picks Mario Bautista
“I think Mario Bautista is going to win this fight”
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Mario Bautista
“I'm going to go with Mario Mario Bautista only because I think his cardio is going to endure longer than Venicious Vinicius Oliveira.”
Capper Comparison Picks picks Mario Bautista
“I'm going to go with Mario Mario Bautista only because I think his cardio is going to endure longer than Venicious Vinicius Oliveira.”
KM
Keep it a Buck Media picks Mario Bautista VALUE
“I Mario Bautista here to win this fight”
Keep it a Buck Media picks Mario Bautista VALUE
“I Mario Bautista here to win this fight”
BM
Bozing MMA picks Mario Bautista
“But I think that later on in the four, five, Mario Bautista will be able to just outcardio him, cardio mo him and take it to a decision.”
Bozing MMA picks Mario Bautista
“But I think that later on in the four, five, Mario Bautista will be able to just outcardio him, cardio mo him and take it to a decision.”
PI
PibbleMMA picks Mario Bautista VALUE
“I'm gonna take Mario Bautista Batista.”
PibbleMMA picks Mario Bautista VALUE
“I'm gonna take Mario Bautista Batista.”
MM
MMAInstigator picks Mario Bautista
“My pick is Mario Bautista to heavy.”
MMAInstigator picks Mario Bautista
“My pick is Mario Bautista to heavy.”
DO
DonDaDa02 picks Mario Bautista VALUE
“I think Mario Bautista is going to have a lot more success... I think Mario Bautista is going to beat Olivivera by unanimous decision.”
DonDaDa02 picks Mario Bautista VALUE
“I think Mario Bautista is going to have a lot more success... I think Mario Bautista is going to beat Olivivera by unanimous decision.”
TR
TrueComboMMA picks Mario Bautista
“edge Mario Bautista, man. I feel like and I don't think that Mario Bautista I fight? I want to see Mario Bautista in a fight, man.”
TrueComboMMA picks Mario Bautista
“edge Mario Bautista, man. I feel like and I don't think that Mario Bautista I fight? I want to see Mario Bautista in a fight, man.”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Mario Bautista
“Mario Bautista is the much better fighter here. and he can knock out Mario Bautista. It's it's very much on the table.”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Mario Bautista
“Mario Bautista is the much better fighter here. and he can knock out Mario Bautista. It's it's very much on the table.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Bautista16-3
W
Oliveira
Feb '26
L
Nurmagomedov
Oct '25
W
Mix
Jun '25
W
Aldo
Oct '24
W
Simón
Jan '24
Oliveira23-4
W
Fili
Jun '26
L
Bautista
Feb '26
W
Phillips
Jul '25
W
Nurmagomedov
Feb '25
W
Simón
Jun '24