MMA Prophecy
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UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Topuria v Oliveira Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus224 picks · conf 99/99
Topuria 140
84 Oliveira
TTSDDT pick Topuria
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Topuria 17-0 VS 36-11 Oliveira
5'7" height 5'10"
155 lb weight 156 lb
69" reach 74"
29 age 36
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.5 strikes landed / min 3.7
54% striking accuracy 48%
2.3 strikes absorbed / min 3.3
61% striking defence 53%
2.3 takedowns / 15 min 1.4
57% takedown accuracy 44%
84% takedown defence 57%
1.3 submissions / 15 min 2.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TP The Darce Podcast picks Charles Oliveira VALUE “I'm going to take him in round one and round two.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Ilia Topuria “I'm gonna go with Ilia Topuria”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Ilia Topuria VALUE “I'm picking Ilia Topuria” $2.65
MD mdminds picks Ilia Topuria VALUE “I'm a huge Charles fan. I really like Ilia Topuria as well.”
TH ThaGamingDojo picks Charles Oliveira VALUE “I'm picking Charles Oliveira Oliver.”
TG Tristar Gym picks Ilia Topuria “And I'm going 8020 pick Ilia Topuria. Now, I'm not giving 8020 to Ilia Topuria. I think it's more like 7030 for Ilia Topuria. If I had to say 7030, I easy for Ilia Topuria. Ilia Topuria is going to have submission.”
FI FightCircuit picks Ilia Topuria VALUE “I can see Taporia hitting like slipping a jab from Charles Oliveira Alber over hand and just dropping him to the floor, following him down with hammer fists and finish him from side back position”
BS B ALL N Sports picks Ilia Topuria VALUE “I think he is going to knock Charles out”
BT BetMGM Tonight picks Ilia Topuria VALUE “One of those nuclear bombs lands and it's a wrap.”
TA TakeDownTalks picks Ilia Topuria VALUE “I don't think Aloa will take down Tapora. ... Give me Ilia Topuria by knockout. That is it for me guys.”
DG Diary of a Pro Gambler picks Ilia Topuria “For those of you that want to know my pick to win, obviously it's going to be Top Urier.”
TS The Mike Finch Show picks Ilia Topuria VALUE “I'm going Tapora.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Topuria17-0
L Gaethje KO/TKO · R4 Jun '26
W Oliveira KO/TKO · R1 Jun '25
W Holloway KO/TKO · R3 Oct '24
W Volkanovski KO/TKO · R2 Feb '24
W Emmett Decision · R5 Jun '23
Oliveira36-11
W Holloway Decision · R5 Mar '26
W Gamrot Submission · R2 Oct '25
L Topuria KO/TKO · R1 Jun '25
W Chandler Decision · R5 Nov '24
L Tsarukyan Decision · R3 Apr '24