MMA Prophecy
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UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
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AP IA Pereira vs AdesanyaMain Card · Middleweight ZW CE Weili vs EsparzaMain Card · Women'S Strawweight DP MC Poirier vs ChandlerMain Card · Lightweight CG FE Gutiérrez vs EdgarMain Card · Bantamweight DH CP Hooker vs PuellesMain Card · Lightweight RM BR Moicano vs RiddellPreliminary Card · Lightweight RS DR Spann vs ReyesPreliminary Card · Catchweight EB MM Blanchfield vs McCannPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight AP WT Petroski vs TurmanPreliminary Card · Middleweight MF OA Frevola vs AzaitarEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight KK SJ Kowalkiewicz vs JuárezEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight MT SC Trizano vs ChoiEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight MJ JA Jackson vs ArceEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight CU NN Ulberg vs NegumereanuEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Weili v Esparza Women'S Strawweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus15 picks · conf 36/99
Weili 12
3 Esparza
MM1SCD pick Weili
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Weili 25-3 VS 20-8 Esparza
5'4" height 5'1"
115 lb weight 115 lb
63" reach 63"
36 age 38
Switch stance Orthodox
5.7 strikes landed / min 2.2
53% striking accuracy 39%
3.1 strikes absorbed / min 2.9
53% striking defence 54%
2.5 takedowns / 15 min 3.3
46% takedown accuracy 36%
50% takedown defence 47%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
UP UFC FIGHT PASS picks Zhang Weili
UP UFC FIGHT PASS picks Carla Esparza
DS Dynes Sports picks Carla Esparza VALUE $5.00
SH Sherdog.com picks Zhang Weili VALUE “I think Zhang Weili will finish the fight I really think she will” $1.80
WP We Want Picks picks Zhang Weili VALUE “I think Whaley dominates this fight”
TT TFB's Talks picks Zhang Weili VALUE “I Alex Pereira I will go NOT_IN_ROSTER_11 NOT_IN_ROSTER_12 NOT_IN_ROSTER_13 by Zhang Weili in any in any way I think she's just too slow for NOT_IN_ROSTER_11 Zhang Weili is had to be able to take down Zhang Weili”
1C 101MMA Clinic picks Zhang Weili “even though it's minus 325 I I would go with her” $1.31
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Zhang Weili VALUE “I like Zhang Weili to win this one”
1C 101MMA Clinic picks Zhang Weili VALUE “I would go with her” $1.31
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Zhang Weili VALUE “I like Zhang I like the five round aspect of things I like the finishing up side and I think she does finish Carla Esparza here” $95.00
MK Morning Kombat picks Carla Esparza VALUE “Carla Esparza's gonna get her head cut off it is over to Carlos Ulberg”
WI WEIGHING IN picks Zhang Weili “I think Zhang Weili is definitely Zhang Weili in this if you're looking at the probably start betting on Zhang Weili uh Can Happen yep Zhang Weili could tyranny no knock on wood if she doesn't Zhang Weili Zhang Weili could shoot it on a double leg or game but I look at the way that Zhang Weili 400 for Zhang Weili to win and then I'm Zhang Weili's gonna probably finish her” $1.25
Recent form last five, most recent first
Weili25-3
L Shevchenko Decision · R5 Nov '25
W Suarez Decision · R5 Feb '25
W Xiaonan Decision · R5 Apr '24
W Lemos Decision · R5 Aug '23
W Esparza Submission · R2 Nov '22
Esparza20-8
L Pennington Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Weili Submission · R2 Nov '22
W Namajunas Decision · R5 May '22
W Xiaonan KO/TKO · R2 May '21
W Rodriguez Decision · R3 Jul '20