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UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Matthews v Flowers Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus35 picks · conf 58/99
Matthews 29
6 Flowers
X“GPFU pick Matthews
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Matthews 22-8 VS 12-8-1 Flowers
5'11" height 5'9"
170 lb weight 155 lb
73" reach 71"
31 age 31
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.9 strikes landed / min 3.1
41% striking accuracy 49%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 5.5
47% striking defence 44%
2.2 takedowns / 15 min 1.0
40% takedown accuracy 28%
50% takedown defence 63%
1.8 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Jake Matthews VALUE “Jake Matthews knocks out” $94.00
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Darrius Flowers VALUE $70.00
WD Wade Dewell picks Jake Matthews “I'm going for him for the Victory”
MA MMA Addicts picks Jake Matthews “I'll go with uh Jake Matthews yeah me too” $1.38
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Jake Matthews VALUE “I think he wins this fight”
HP Heavy P picks Jake Matthews “I'm rolling with Jake Matthews”
KU Kunath picks Darrius Flowers VALUE “if you want to take a shot on Darrius Flowers I think that makes sense”
WP We Want Picks picks Jake Matthews VALUE “I think Jake Jake Matthews wins this fight”
GR Grelka Republic picks Jake Matthews VALUE “mine's Jake Matthews Matthews is my lock”
AD Addicted2Combat picks Jake Matthews VALUE “give me Samuel's Burgers money line” $1.61
SH Sherdog.com picks Jake Matthews VALUE “he's gonna wrap there but I don't want Jake Matthews minus two seven five I think this is trying to be a bit of a layup here from against Darrius Flowers” $1.36
“S “And NEW” MMA Show picks Jake Matthews “I'm gonna go with Jake Matthews here by unanimous decision”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Matthews22-8
W Harris Decision · R3 May '26
L Magny Submission · R3 Sep '25
W Njokuani Submission · R1 Jul '25
W Prado Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Rowe Decision · R3 Jun '24
Flowers12-8-1
W Vannata KO/TKO · R2 Apr '26
L Elder Submission · R2 Jul '24
L Johnson Decision · R3 Feb '24
L Matthews Submission · R2 Jul '23