MMA Prophecy
🌐BEST
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Choose a fight to analyse
JG DP Gaethje vs PoirierMain Card · Lightweight AP JB Pereira vs BłachowiczMain Card · Light Heavyweight DL ML Lewis vs LimaMain Card · Heavyweight BG TF Green vs FergusonMain Card · Lightweight KH MC Holland vs ChiesaMain Card · Welterweight GB TG Bonfim vs GilesPreliminary Card · Welterweight CV VS Vergara vs SalvadorPreliminary Card · Catchweight RK CR Kopylov vs RibeiroPreliminary Card · Middleweight JM DF Matthews vs FlowersPreliminary Card · Welterweight UM MS Medić vs SemelsbergerEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight MM PC Maverick vs CachoeiraEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Bonfim v Giles Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Consensus24 picks · conf 48/99
Bonfim 19
5 Giles
XPAD1T pick Bonfim
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Bonfim 19-1 VS 16-7 Giles
6'1" height 6'0"
170 lb weight 170 lb
72" reach 74"
28 age 33
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.8 strikes landed / min 3.2
42% striking accuracy 54%
4.4 strikes absorbed / min 2.4
62% striking defence 58%
2.9 takedowns / 15 min 1.1
75% takedown accuracy 50%
73% takedown defence 72%
1.9 submissions / 15 min 0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
FS Final Round Sports picks Gabriel Bonfim “I'm expecting him to get yet another first round submission and in this one pretty quickly”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Trevin Giles VALUE “Trevin Giles submits him” $71.00
WD Wade Dewell picks Gabriel Bonfim “I think Bond theme is going to get it done”
HP Heavy P picks Gabriel Bonfim “Gabriel Bonfim is coming to put an end to it”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Gabriel Bonfim VALUE “I think Gabriel Bonfim wins this”
“S “And NEW” MMA Show picks Trevin Giles “No direct quote, but context from fight discussion”
SL SPORTS TREE LTD. picks Gabriel Bonfim “I think this is a great setup fight for Gabriel Bonfim and I think he likely rolls”
XA XaaviMMA picks Gabriel Bonfim VALUE “one from definitely the pick for this one”
MN Mayo Media Network picks Gabriel Bonfim “I will take bomb theme” $1.31
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Gabriel Bonfim VALUE “I think bomb theme submits Trevin Giles”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Trevin Giles “as far as Trevin Trevin Giles I mean could he pull off this upset I mean I don't know”
MT MMA Tizzer picks Trevin Giles “I'm going to be picking Trevin Trevin Giles Trevin Giles”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Bonfim19-1
W Muhammad Decision · R5 Jun '26
W Brown KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
W Thompson Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Williams Submission · R2 Feb '25
W Loosa Decision · R3 Jul '24
Giles16-7
L Malott Decision · R3 Nov '24
L Prates KO/TKO · R2 Feb '24
L Bonfim Submission · R1 Jul '23
W Parsons Decision · R3 Mar '23
W Cosce Decision · R3 Sep '22