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DP
Gaethje vs PoirierMain Card · Lightweight
AP
JB
Pereira vs BłachowiczMain Card · Light Heavyweight
DL
ML
Lewis vs LimaMain Card · Heavyweight
BG
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Green vs FergusonMain Card · Lightweight
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Holland vs ChiesaMain Card · Welterweight
GB
TG
Bonfim vs GilesPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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VS
Vergara vs SalvadorPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Kopylov vs RibeiroPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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Matthews vs FlowersPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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MS
Medić vs SemelsbergerEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
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PC
Maverick vs CachoeiraEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
DP
Gaethje vs PoirierMain Card · Lightweight
AP
JB
Pereira vs BłachowiczMain Card · Light Heavyweight
DL
ML
Lewis vs LimaMain Card · Heavyweight
BG
TF
Green vs FergusonMain Card · Lightweight
KH
MC
Holland vs ChiesaMain Card · Welterweight
GB
TG
Bonfim vs GilesPreliminary Card · Welterweight
CV
VS
Vergara vs SalvadorPreliminary Card · Catchweight
RK
CR
Kopylov vs RibeiroPreliminary Card · Middleweight
JM
DF
Matthews vs FlowersPreliminary Card · Welterweight
UM
MS
Medić vs SemelsbergerEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
MM
PC
Maverick vs CachoeiraEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Prophecy read
Pereira v Błachowicz
Light Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Pereira 13-3
VS
29-10-1 Błachowicz
6'4"
height
—
251 lb
weight
—
79"
reach
—
38
age
43
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
5.5
strikes landed / min
3.4
54%
striking accuracy
50%
3.8
strikes absorbed / min
2.9
61%
striking defence
53%
0.1
takedowns / 15 min
1.1
0%
takedown accuracy
50%
92%
takedown defence
68%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
UC
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Alex Pereira VALUE
“I think I'm gonna agree more sketchy picks is Alex Pereira against Jan Błachowicz he can get the job done”
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Alex Pereira VALUE
“I think I'm gonna agree more sketchy picks is Alex Pereira against Jan Błachowicz he can get the job done”
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Alex Pereira VALUE
“so I like Alex Pereira Pereira on the money line I think he can win a decision with volume and I think he can knock out Jan Błachowicza as well so I like his knockout prop terms of a round robin bet but definitely going with money line for about here”
$1.95
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Alex Pereira VALUE
“so I like Alex Pereira Pereira on the money line I think he can win a decision with volume and I think he can knock out Jan Błachowicza as well so I like his knockout prop terms of a round robin bet but definitely going with money line for about here”
$1.95
TM
The MMA-Holes picks Jan Błachowicz
“you got Jan Błachowicz versus Alex Pereira versus Alex Pereira I am going to be on the Jan Błachowicz's”
The MMA-Holes picks Jan Błachowicz
“you got Jan Błachowicz versus Alex Pereira versus Alex Pereira I am going to be on the Jan Błachowicz's”
WD
Wade Dewell picks Jan Błachowicz
“I got Stephen Thompson winning”
Wade Dewell picks Jan Błachowicz
“I got Stephen Thompson winning”
TO
The Call Out picks Alex Pereira VALUE
“I'm gonna take yon block wits”
The Call Out picks Alex Pereira VALUE
“I'm gonna take yon block wits”
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Alex Pereira VALUE
“I do like Alex Pereira at plus 130”
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Alex Pereira VALUE
“I do like Alex Pereira at plus 130”
SA
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Jan Błachowicz VALUE
“my preferred side to Target is going to be Jan Błachowicz”
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Jan Błachowicz VALUE
“my preferred side to Target is going to be Jan Błachowicz”
FP
Fight Game Media - Pro Wrestling Podcasts picks Jan Błachowicz VALUE
“the co-main event uh and you said you're lean towards yawn well he's got a 96.3 percent ROI and I kind of would would lean Jan Błachowicz in this one”
Fight Game Media - Pro Wrestling Podcasts picks Jan Błachowicz VALUE
“the co-main event uh and you said you're lean towards yawn well he's got a 96.3 percent ROI and I kind of would would lean Jan Błachowicz in this one”
TL
The life of laASMR picks Jan Błachowicz
“per hero is just such a good because my back”
The life of laASMR picks Jan Błachowicz
“per hero is just such a good because my back”
KU
Kunath picks Alex Pereira VALUE
“I think that he goes on to win”
Kunath picks Alex Pereira VALUE
“I think that he goes on to win”
YP
Your Fight Pod picks Jan Błachowicz
“my pick is Jan Błachowicz”
Your Fight Pod picks Jan Błachowicz
“my pick is Jan Błachowicz”
RA
Ringside Report Network - Combat Sports Authority picks Alex Pereira VALUE
“I think Alex Pereira has a lot to show he wants to come back because he he wants to avenge that loss”
Ringside Report Network - Combat Sports Authority picks Alex Pereira VALUE
“I think Alex Pereira has a lot to show he wants to come back because he he wants to avenge that loss”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Pereira13-3
L
Gane
Jun '26
W
Ankalaev
Oct '25
L
Ankalaev
Mar '25
W
Rountree Jr.
Oct '24
W
Procházka
Jun '24
Błachowicz29-10-1
L
Ulberg
Mar '25
L
Pereira
Jul '23
W
Rakić
May '22
L
Teixeira
Oct '21
W
Adesanya
Mar '21