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UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Dobson v Nchukwi Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus31 picks · conf 54/99
Dobson 27
4 Nchukwi
IPFEPD pick Dobson
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Dobson 7-3 VS 6-4 Nchukwi
height 6'0"
weight 189 lb
reach 77"
34 age 31
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.3 strikes landed / min 5.6
46% striking accuracy 52%
5.3 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
46% striking defence 54%
1.7 takedowns / 15 min 0.8
75% takedown accuracy 57%
65% takedown defence 64%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks A.J. Dobson “over 1.5 A.J. Dobson uh probably yes but I would say the option to win”
TH TheGreyFaction picks A.J. Dobson “even if it's a small favorites I'm gonna go and pick tafon and choku to get the win my decision”
ZP Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Tafon Nchukwi “nichu is going to be the pick decent amount of confidence” $1.80
WP We Want Picks picks A.J. Dobson VALUE “I like A.J. Dobson here especially if he's going to work in some takedowns especially if he's gonna you know come forward with the pace with pressure”
WP We Want Picks picks A.J. Dobson VALUE “I think A.J. A.J. Dobson has the wrestling he's also a very good Striker I think you can get it done” $2.21
AD Addicted2Combat picks A.J. Dobson “most confident fighter is Josh Fremd Marcus McGee Martin Buday Khalil Rountree Jr. Terrance McKinney Da'Mon Blackshear Hakeem dawadu Jaqueline Amorim Iasmin Lucindo Rafael dos Anjos Luana Santos A.J. Dobson and least confident pick is Isaac delgarian”
BE BetVets picks A.J. Dobson “I'm gonna go AJ Dobson here uh I think he gets comfortable with this fight and uh I think he he has the skill set to get it done”
SM SPOOGE MMA picks A.J. Dobson “I have A.J. Dobson gonna win by KO”
SH Sherdog.com picks A.J. Dobson VALUE “I'm going for Steve Maori a plus one 88th to win” $2.88
PR Premium-Picks picks A.J. Dobson VALUE “I'd be stabbing Dobson as the dog um but I wouldn't be going big or super confident” $2.25
BM Broke Bets MMA picks A.J. Dobson VALUE “give me age adopts second bet”
EB ESPN BET picks A.J. Dobson VALUE “for me Dobson if he wins by by decision” $6.00
Recent form last five, most recent first
Dobson7-3
L Shahbazyan KO/TKO · R1 Mar '24
W Nchukwi Decision · R3 Aug '23
L Malkoun Decision · R3 Feb '22
Nchukwi6-4
L Dobson Decision · R3 Aug '23
L Ulberg KO/TKO · R1 Jun '22
L Murzakanov KO/TKO · R3 Mar '22
W Rodríguez Decision · R3 Sep '21
L Park Decision · R3 May '21