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UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Diakiese v Fernandes Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus33 picks · conf 56/99
Diakiese 16
17 Fernandes
TMJMGU pick Diakiese
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Diakiese 17-7 VS 11-2 Fernandes
— height 5'9"
— weight 155 lb
— reach 73"
33 age 31
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.5 strikes landed / min 2.8
40% striking accuracy 64%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 4.9
52% striking defence 57%
3.3 takedowns / 15 min 2.8
43% takedown accuracy 45%
66% takedown defence 58%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Kauê Fernandes “Kauê Fernandes versus Marc Diakiese I'm going to say fight starts around three side call the Aisa the Aisa decision yes”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Marc Diakiese VALUE “the pick is Marc Diakiese to get the win and I'm picking him to get it done by a decision” $1.53
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Kauê Fernandes “I'm going with with Kauê Fernandes”
PP Prime Time Picks picks Kauê Fernandes VALUE “I'm gonna pick Kauê Fernandes”
MP Mike's MMA Picks picks Marc Diakiese “I'm gonna be picking D Casey”
PN Picks Nation picks Kauê Fernandes VALUE “I got Kauê Fernandes I got him at plus 145 even better value now” $2.45
KU Kunath picks Kauê Fernandes VALUE “I like the early Storm from C Kauê Fernandes to get it done this week”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Marc Diakiese “I'm going to be picking Mark jaey in this fight I think he can get it done across the 15 minutes I think he's going to just win a decision” $1.56
BP Boxing MMA Picks picks Marc Diakiese VALUE “jaey will be my pick”
TP The Early Weigh In Podcast picks Marc Diakiese VALUE “D's the pick although the line's gotten away from me here” $1.48
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Marc Diakiese VALUE “I like d Casey here you know money's been coming in on him uh in terms of the money line”
TO The Golden Octagon picks Marc Diakiese VALUE “give me Martin de Casey uh it says he's a slight favorite right now” $1.62
Recent form last five, most recent first
Diakiese17-7
W Fernandes Decision · R3 Nov '23
L Álvarez Submission · R2 Jul '23
L Johnson Decision · R3 Dec '22
W Hadžović Decision · R3 Jul '22
W Borshchev Decision · R3 Mar '22
Fernandes11-2
W Hardwick KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
W Kutateladze Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Yahya KO/TKO · R1 Aug '24
L Diakiese Decision · R3 Nov '23