Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis · Fight IQ

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis

Choose a fight to analyse

Almeida vs LewisMain Card · Heavyweight ND

Dalby vs BonfimMain Card · Welterweight RN

Nascimento vs MayesMain Card · Heavyweight CB

Borralho vs MagomedovMain Card · Middleweight EB

Brener vs KruschewskyMain Card · Catchweight RF

Fakhretdinov vs SantosPreliminary Card · Welterweight VP

Petrino vs BukauskasPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight AH

Hill vs GomesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight EM

Moura vs RuizPreliminary Card · Catchweight MD

Diakiese vs FernandesPreliminary Card · Lightweight

BEST PRICE Prophecy read Almeida v Lewis Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side

The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →

New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker

Consensus44 picks · conf 65/99

Almeida 37

7 Lewis

pick Almeida

Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side

Almeida 22-4 VS 29-13 Lewis

6'3" height 6'3"

237 lb weight 265 lb

79" reach 79"

35 age 41

Orthodox stance Orthodox

2.5 strikes landed / min 2.5

64% striking accuracy 50%

0.7 strikes absorbed / min 2.5

40% striking defence 40%

6.8 takedowns / 15 min 0.6

59% takedown accuracy 26%

75% takedown defence 52%

2.6 submissions / 15 min 0.0

The model read

Deep research · camps & rumours

AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.

What the numbers say

Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.

Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →

Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight

The Rambling Dad picks Derrick Lewis VALUE “goingon to surprise a lot of people I'm ring my Derek Le for my last Underdog on this one”

Once Upon A Slugfest picks Jailton Almeida “obviously I'm going with Almeida”

Prime Time Picks picks Jailton Almeida “I'm picking Jailton Jailton Almeida”

The Fighters Replay picks Jailton Almeida “if I had to put my money on somebody I'm not even going to lie to you I think I'd have to go at Jailton Almeidaailton Almeida”

Ultimate Punching picks Jailton Almeida “as a Jiu-Jitsu guy myself I think I'm gonna have to go with Jailton Almeida”

We Want Picks picks Jailton Almeida “I don't think he wins this fight [referring to Derrick Lewis, implying Jailton Almeida wins]”

Diary of a Pro Gambler picks Jailton Almeida “it's obviously a very good stylistic match up for Jailton Almeida”

Picks Nation picks Jailton Almeida VALUE “I think Jailton Almeida I think minus 550 is a discount honestly and I think he's absolutely going to get it done” $1.18