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UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Johnson v Hadley Flyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus49 picks · conf 69/99
Johnson 30
19 Hadley
PFJTLT pick Johnson
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Johnson 19-8 VS 11-4 Hadley
5'9" height —
126 lb weight —
70" reach —
35 age 29
Switch stance Southpaw
4.2 strikes landed / min 3.8
47% striking accuracy 43%
3.1 strikes absorbed / min 4.2
54% striking defence 61%
1.9 takedowns / 15 min 0.3
66% takedown accuracy 11%
55% takedown defence 54%
1.9 submissions / 15 min 1.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ZP Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Charles Johnson VALUE “I'm going to go with Charles Johnson he is the underdog”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Jake Hadley “Jake Hadley European Grappler or British Grappler”
WP We Want Picks picks Jake Hadley VALUE “I do think Jake Hadley wins this fight”
KU Kunath picks Charles Johnson VALUE “Charles Johnson who is going to win his fight”
TP The City Life Project picks Charles Johnson VALUE “I have in a G Charles Johnson in this one”
KC Keg & Company | A Betting Collective picks Charles Johnson VALUE “the pick is Charles Johnson”
MB Matty Betss picks Charles Johnson VALUE “I like him here I met him at plus 140” $2.40
MB Matty Betss picks Jake Hadley “Hadley at minus 174 I mean look this is a tough fight for me but I think the odds are a little bit wide” $1.57
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Charles Johnson VALUE “we're going Charles Charles Johnson to win 70% of my chat is already in agreement” $2.15
MM MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Jake Hadley “I'm going to go with Jake Hadley I feel like it's a close fight and I'm going to go with the younger guy that I think could have improved during this time off maybe that lost to diring kind of got him hungry back in the gym and we're going to see a better version of Hadley here”
PP Pure Picks picks Charles Johnson VALUE “I think he is a good dog in this fight”
MB MMA Bros picks Charles Johnson “I'm leaning towards Charles Johnson”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Johnson19-8
L Almabayev Submission · R3 Jun '26
W Silva Decision · R3 Mar '26
L Perez KO/TKO · R1 Jan '26
W Kavanagh KO/TKO · R2 Aug '25
L Temirov Decision · R3 Mar '25
Hadley11-4
L Smotherman Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Loughran Decision · R3 Jul '24
L Johnson Decision · R3 May '24
L Durden Decision · R3 Aug '23
W Gordon KO/TKO · R1 Mar '23