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Prophecy read
Lewis v Nascimento
Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Lewis 29-13
VS
11-3 Nascimento
6'3"
height
—
265 lb
weight
—
79"
reach
—
41
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
2.5
strikes landed / min
3.7
50%
striking accuracy
47%
2.5
strikes absorbed / min
4.3
40%
striking defence
44%
0.6
takedowns / 15 min
1.0
26%
takedown accuracy
37%
52%
takedown defence
60%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
0.5
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MP
Mike's MMA Picks picks Derrick Lewis
“I'm leaning towards the Derrick Lewis so give me Derrick Lewis to win”
Mike's MMA Picks picks Derrick Lewis
“I'm leaning towards the Derrick Lewis so give me Derrick Lewis to win”
ZP
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Derrick Lewis
“Derrick Lewis should win this one”
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Derrick Lewis
“Derrick Lewis should win this one”
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Rodrigo Nascimento
“if I had to bet this one pre-fight I would lean naso”
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Rodrigo Nascimento
“if I had to bet this one pre-fight I would lean naso”
WP
We Want Picks picks Derrick Lewis VALUE
“I think Rodrigo Nascimento naso could win this fight but I'm not confident... I might throw Derrick Derrick Lewis in there just literally for the potential of a knockout”
We Want Picks picks Derrick Lewis VALUE
“I think Rodrigo Nascimento naso could win this fight but I'm not confident... I might throw Derrick Derrick Lewis in there just literally for the potential of a knockout”
KU
Kunath picks Rodrigo Nascimento VALUE
“if he does win it's because he's getting takedowns it's probably because he gets a submission”
Kunath picks Rodrigo Nascimento VALUE
“if he does win it's because he's getting takedowns it's probably because he gets a submission”
TP
The City Life Project picks Derrick Lewis
“we're going with robell Des pain”
The City Life Project picks Derrick Lewis
“we're going with robell Des pain”
MB
Matty Betss picks Rodrigo Nascimento
“we are hoping all of you and our live audience here to preview EVENT_DETAILS Derrick Lewis uh and Rodrigo Nas M the main event”
Matty Betss picks Rodrigo Nascimento
“we are hoping all of you and our live audience here to preview EVENT_DETAILS Derrick Lewis uh and Rodrigo Nas M the main event”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Derrick Lewis VALUE
“I am picking Shawn Woodson to win I think Woodson's the better Striker”
$1.44
MMA EXPERTS picks Derrick Lewis VALUE
“I am picking Shawn Woodson to win I think Woodson's the better Striker”
$1.44
RM
R Athletics MMA picks Rodrigo Nascimento
“so honestly I think his momentum and skill set should be enough for Rodrigo Nascimento to get P Derrick Derrick Lewisewis so that's my pick”
R Athletics MMA picks Rodrigo Nascimento
“so honestly I think his momentum and skill set should be enough for Rodrigo Nascimento to get P Derrick Derrick Lewisewis so that's my pick”
LF
Liam Picks Fights picks Derrick Lewis VALUE
“we gotta talk about Derrick Lewis we gotta talk about Rodrigo Nascimento”
Liam Picks Fights picks Derrick Lewis VALUE
“we gotta talk about Derrick Lewis we gotta talk about Rodrigo Nascimento”
LF
Liam Picks Fights picks Rodrigo Nascimento
“we gotta talk about Derrick Lewis we gotta talk about Rodrigo Nascimento”
Liam Picks Fights picks Rodrigo Nascimento
“we gotta talk about Derrick Lewis we gotta talk about Rodrigo Nascimento”
WT
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Derrick Lewis
“if he lands one that could be the end of the night but I do see two really big issues here for Nas amento”
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Derrick Lewis
“if he lands one that could be the end of the night but I do see two really big issues here for Nas amento”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Lewis29-13
L
Hokit
Jun '26
L
Cortes-Acosta
Jan '26
W
Teixeira
Jul '25
W
Nascimento
May '24
L
Almeida
Nov '23
Nascimento11-3
L
Romanov
Nov '24
L
Lewis
May '24
W
Mayes
Nov '23
W
Latifi
May '23
W
Boser
Sep '22