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UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Strickland v Costa Middleweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus86 picks · conf 80/99
Strickland 66
20 Costa
HEWBPM pick Strickland
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Strickland 30-7 VS 0-0 Costa
6'1" height 6'1"
185 lb weight 185 lb
76" reach 72"
35 age 35
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.8 strikes landed / min 6.2
47% striking accuracy 58%
4.1 strikes absorbed / min 6.6
58% striking defence 49%
1.9 takedowns / 15 min 0.4
40% takedown accuracy 75%
78% takedown defence 80%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
LS Lil Stray picks Sean Strickland VALUE “I'm going with Sean Strickland”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Sean Strickland “I Sean Strickland to win the fight”
PH Pound 4 Pound with Kamaru & Henry picks Sean Strickland “I have to go with Sean Strickland”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Paulo Costa VALUE “I pick Paulo Costa”
PF Pickin' Fights picks Sean Strickland VALUE “I'm going with Sean Sean Strickland here five round decision”
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Sean Strickland VALUE “it's Sean Sean Sean Stricklandland”
AM ANCHOR MMA picks Sean Strickland VALUE “I'm still going to pick with my pick I really think Shawn is going to get this done especially after Paulo Paulo has and I know Shawn has everything to lose I just don't see Paulo's punches being able to hurt Sean Strickland I think Sean Strickland easy five round it's five rounds as well I used I thought it was three five rounds one 100% a decision”
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Sean Strickland VALUE “I think Sean Strickland wins landing something like 160 significant strikes”
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Paulo Costa VALUE “I like Paulo Paulo Costa a good amount”
EB ESPN BET picks Sean Strickland VALUE “I like sha Sean Strickland to win this fight” $1.37
TB Totally Blitzed picks Sean Strickland “Sean's going to beat the [__] out of him” $1.38
MK Morning Kombat picks Paulo Costa “this might be the perfect storm for Paulo Costa to crash the title picture get a huge finish win here lowkey believe in the stock of where Paulo Costa is going right now”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Strickland30-7
W Chimaev Decision · R5 May '26
W Hernandez KO/TKO · R3 Feb '26
L Plessis Decision · R5 Feb '25
W Costa Decision · R5 Jun '24
L Plessis Decision · R5 Jan '24
Costa0-0
W Murzakanov KO/TKO · R3 Apr '26
W Kopylov Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Strickland Decision · R5 Jun '24
L Whittaker Decision · R3 Feb '24
W Rockhold Decision · R3 Aug '22