Choose a fight to analyse
NI
JC
Imavov vs CannonierMain Card · Middleweight
DR
DJ
Reyes vs JacobyMain Card · Light Heavyweight
RJ
RT
Rosas Jr. vs TurciosMain Card · Bantamweight
BF
DS
Ferreira vs StoltzfusMain Card · Middleweight
ZR
JM
Reese vs MarquezMain Card · Middleweight
PS
MB
Soriano vs BaezaMain Card · Welterweight
ĽK
TM
Klein vs MoisésPreliminary Card · Lightweight
CP
CR
Prates vs RadtkePreliminary Card · Welterweight
BK
JB
Katona vs ButlerPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
MR
AL
Rosa vs LeePreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
DM
JC
Marcos vs CastañedaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
DG
EM
Gomes vs MouraPreliminary Card · Catchweight
TL
CS
Lapilus vs StamannPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
PT
RS
Tomar vs SantosPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JC
Imavov vs CannonierMain Card · Middleweight
DR
DJ
Reyes vs JacobyMain Card · Light Heavyweight
RJ
RT
Rosas Jr. vs TurciosMain Card · Bantamweight
BF
DS
Ferreira vs StoltzfusMain Card · Middleweight
ZR
JM
Reese vs MarquezMain Card · Middleweight
PS
MB
Soriano vs BaezaMain Card · Welterweight
ĽK
TM
Klein vs MoisésPreliminary Card · Lightweight
CP
CR
Prates vs RadtkePreliminary Card · Welterweight
BK
JB
Katona vs ButlerPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
MR
AL
Rosa vs LeePreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
DM
JC
Marcos vs CastañedaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
DG
EM
Gomes vs MouraPreliminary Card · Catchweight
TL
CS
Lapilus vs StamannPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
PT
RS
Tomar vs SantosPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Soriano v Baeza
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Soriano 12-4
VS
10-4 Baeza
5'11"
height
6'2"
171 lb
weight
171 lb
72"
reach
74"
33
age
33
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
4.4
strikes landed / min
4.1
60%
striking accuracy
49%
4.4
strikes absorbed / min
5.9
51%
striking defence
46%
1.1
takedowns / 15 min
0.4
53%
takedown accuracy
22%
73%
takedown defence
54%
0.6
submissions / 15 min
2.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MM
Mainer MMA picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“Punahele Soriano looks like he's just chilling he's just relaxing... Punahele Soriano knows he already won this fight just in this face off”
Mainer MMA picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“Punahele Soriano looks like he's just chilling he's just relaxing... Punahele Soriano knows he already won this fight just in this face off”
TP
The City Life Project picks Miguel Baeza
“I'm gonna go with Ludi Klein”
The City Life Project picks Miguel Baeza
“I'm gonna go with Ludi Klein”
MM
MMAPredictionExperts picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“at a plus 160 I'm looking for Punahele Soriano to exploit Miguel Baeza on the feet catch him potentially rocking him and getting the Finish”
$2.60
MMAPredictionExperts picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“at a plus 160 I'm looking for Punahele Soriano to exploit Miguel Baeza on the feet catch him potentially rocking him and getting the Finish”
$2.60
WP
We Want Picks picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“I am picking Puna Punahele Soriano seran to win”
We Want Picks picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“I am picking Puna Punahele Soriano seran to win”
KU
Kunath picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“Punahele Sorianohele Soriano can knock anybody out and now he's moving down to welterweight”
Kunath picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“Punahele Sorianohele Soriano can knock anybody out and now he's moving down to welterweight”
DI
DFS Insights picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“I'll probably be leaning on Punahele Soriano on this to give me that leverage”
$2.95
DFS Insights picks Punahele Soriano VALUE
“I'll probably be leaning on Punahele Soriano on this to give me that leverage”
$2.95
DI
DFS Insights picks Miguel Baeza
“my math projections have Miguel Baeza off looking at about 74% chance to win”
$1.51
DFS Insights picks Miguel Baeza
“my math projections have Miguel Baeza off looking at about 74% chance to win”
$1.51
KC
Keg & Company | A Betting Collective picks Miguel Baeza VALUE
“I have to go with bayaza here”
Keg & Company | A Betting Collective picks Miguel Baeza VALUE
“I have to go with bayaza here”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Miguel Baeza VALUE
“I do lean the Miguel Baeza side here at 8,700 though uh Miguel Baeza I think he is the better fighter”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Miguel Baeza VALUE
“I do lean the Miguel Baeza side here at 8,700 though uh Miguel Baeza I think he is the better fighter”
DG
Diary of a Pro Gambler picks Punahele Soriano
“baser can just make it out of round one which I think he's technical enough to do he will probably then go on to kind of outclass and out strike Sano”
Diary of a Pro Gambler picks Punahele Soriano
“baser can just make it out of round one which I think he's technical enough to do he will probably then go on to kind of outclass and out strike Sano”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Soriano12-4
W
Brahimaj
Feb '26
W
Veretennikov
Oct '25
W
Medić
Jan '25
W
Baeza
Jun '24
L
Stoltzfus
Dec '23
Baeza10-4
L
Soriano
Jun '24
L
Fialho
Apr '22
L
Williams
Nov '21
L
Ponzinibbio
Jun '21
W
Sato
Nov '20