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UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Lapilus v Morales Bantamweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus16 picks · conf 38/99
Lapilus 14
2 Morales
JMURSB pick Lapilus
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Lapilus 21-4 VS 16-10 Morales
— height 5'7"
— weight 136 lb
— reach 70"
34 age 35
Southpaw stance Orthodox
4.6 strikes landed / min 4.0
48% striking accuracy 36%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 4.5
62% striking defence 53%
0.3 takedowns / 15 min 0.4
33% takedown accuracy 30%
77% takedown defence 65%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Vince Morales VALUE “Bo I'NOT_IN_ROSTER_83 going to go with lud Ľudovít Klein”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Taylor Lapilus “I'm gonna take Taylor Lapilus”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Taylor Lapilus VALUE “my subscribers and I went with Taylor Lapilus” $1.29
PR Premium-Picks picks Taylor Lapilus “give me lapos to win the fight” $1.29
WP We Want Picks picks Taylor Lapilus “tayor lapis is not a finisher he will win this fight”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Taylor Lapilus “give me Taylor Lapilus I just feel comfortable taking Taylor Lapilus in this 2.5 I'm good but give me Taylor Lapilus”
MA MMA Attic picks Taylor Lapilus VALUE “the model not quite as confident but still giving Taylor Lapilus The Edge” $1.76
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Taylor Lapilus “give me Taylor Lapilus”
DR DRYWALL picks Taylor Lapilus “picking Taylor Lapilus to do really”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Taylor Lapilus “I'm William Gomising to pick laulis”
BM Brando MMA picks Taylor Lapilus “I'm gonna go Taylor Lapilus”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Taylor Lapilus VALUE “I think uh lapolis I think the over hits and I think it's probably a a point karate decision for lapis here”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Lapilus21-4
W Morales Decision · R3 Sep '24
W Stamann Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Basharat Decision · R3 Jan '24
W Loughran Decision · R3 Sep '23
W Issa Decision · R3 Sep '16
Morales16-10
L Thicknesse Decision · R3 May '26
L Rosas Jr. Decision · R3 Mar '25
L Smith Decision · R3 Feb '25
L Lapilus Decision · R3 Sep '24
L Johns Decision · R3 Nov '22