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UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Ziam v Frevola Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus17 picks · conf 39/99
Ziam 7
10 Frevola
JMMUMC pick Ziam
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Ziam 18-4 VS 11-5-1 Frevola
6'1" height 5'9"
156 lb weight 155 lb
75" reach 71"
29 age 36
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.8 strikes landed / min 4.6
43% striking accuracy 43%
2.3 strikes absorbed / min 3.5
61% striking defence 68%
1.2 takedowns / 15 min 1.0
37% takedown accuracy 70%
66% takedown defence 72%
1.9 submissions / 15 min 1.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Farès Ziam “I pick uh Farès Ziam”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Matt Frevola “I went with mat Matt Frevola” $2.00
LM Livid Larry MMA picks Matt Frevola “I'm going to go with Matt Frevola here and it's because of a couple reasons mainly the first is that I think he will be more willing to mix up the action with some takedowns in this fight and I also rate fala's recent performances more highly than forz zam's performances”
CO Covers picks Matt Frevola VALUE “I do like Matt Frevola all is kind of PS to Victory here” $2.05
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Farès Ziam VALUE “I like Farès Ziam as a dog”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Matt Frevola VALUE “Matt Matt Frevola is the pick” $2.12
PR Premium-Picks picks Matt Frevola VALUE “I think Matt Frevola wins this fight”
WP We Want Picks picks Matt Frevola VALUE “I think Matt Frevola wins”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Matt Frevola “I'm gonna take Matt Frevola ... I love the the underdog the plus money on Matt Frevola ... yeah man I I'm GNA take Matt Frevola here ... yeah give me Matt Frevola”
MA MMA Attic picks Farès Ziam VALUE “the model is much stronger with a minus 161 for Farès Ziam” $1.62
DC Dodson's Corner picks Matt Frevola “I got Matt Frevola I think he can catch him uh he's a 110 Underdog” $2.10
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Farès Ziam “I'm going to side with Farès Ziam”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Ziam18-4
L Nolan Decision · R3 Jun '26
W Sadykhov KO/TKO · R2 Dec '25
W Davis Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Frevola KO/TKO · R3 Sep '24
W Puelles Decision · R3 Feb '24
Frevola11-5-1
L Nelson Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Ziam KO/TKO · R3 Sep '24
L Denis KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
W Dober KO/TKO · R1 May '23
W Azaitar KO/TKO · R1 Nov '22