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Carpenter vs RochaPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Royval vs TairaMain Card · Flyweight
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Jun-yong vs TavaresMain Card · Middleweight
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Njokuani vs GoodenMain Card · Catchweight
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Dawson vs GarcíaMain Card · Lightweight
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Rodriguez vs MoronoMain Card · Welterweight
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Temirov vs VergaraPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Sabatini vs PearcePreliminary Card · Featherweight
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Gorimbo vs PricePreliminary Card · Welterweight
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Tafa vs SharafPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
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Polastri vs McKennaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Haddon vs ArguetaPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Carpenter vs RochaPreliminary Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Carpenter v Rocha
Flyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Carpenter 8-2
VS
18-2 Rocha
5'6"
height
5'3"
126 lb
weight
126 lb
66"
reach
64"
30
age
25
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.8
strikes landed / min
3.9
62%
striking accuracy
55%
4.0
strikes absorbed / min
3.1
49%
striking defence
54%
1.3
takedowns / 15 min
2.8
31%
takedown accuracy
73%
50%
takedown defence
90%
1.0
submissions / 15 min
1.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MP
Mike's MMA Picks picks Clayton Carpenter
“give me Clayton Carpenter to win”
Mike's MMA Picks picks Clayton Carpenter
“give me Clayton Carpenter to win”
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Clayton Carpenter
“My subscribers and I went with Clayton Carpenter um Clayton Carpenter is a - 175 um favorite”
$1.57
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Clayton Carpenter
“My subscribers and I went with Clayton Carpenter um Clayton Carpenter is a - 175 um favorite”
$1.57
WM
Washed MMA picks Clayton Carpenter
“more of these things can go Clayton Clayton Carpenter's Way then go roa's way”
Washed MMA picks Clayton Carpenter
“more of these things can go Clayton Clayton Carpenter's Way then go roa's way”
WB
Willis Bermingham picks Clayton Carpenter
“I'm going to choose Clayton Carpenter with this one just because he's got more fights uh the odds agree with me”
Willis Bermingham picks Clayton Carpenter
“I'm going to choose Clayton Carpenter with this one just because he's got more fights uh the odds agree with me”
WP
We Want Picks picks Clayton Carpenter VALUE
“Clayton Carpenter is the pick and Clayton Carpenter will be in my DraftKings lineup”
We Want Picks picks Clayton Carpenter VALUE
“Clayton Carpenter is the pick and Clayton Carpenter will be in my DraftKings lineup”
WR
Wise Rise picks Clayton Carpenter VALUE
“I like Clayton Carpenter in this match up atga 190 to Wi in to be honest he would probably be one of my my most confident picks on the card”
$1.53
Wise Rise picks Clayton Carpenter VALUE
“I like Clayton Carpenter in this match up atga 190 to Wi in to be honest he would probably be one of my my most confident picks on the card”
$1.53
LM
Live Dogs MMA picks Clayton Carpenter
“I'm going to go with Clayton Carpenter because I've Just Seen more out of him I feel like I can trust him more you know I I just feel like Clayton Carpenter is one of these Contender series guys that is not going to flop”
Live Dogs MMA picks Clayton Carpenter
“I'm going to go with Clayton Carpenter because I've Just Seen more out of him I feel like I can trust him more you know I I just feel like Clayton Carpenter is one of these Contender series guys that is not going to flop”
MN
MMA Lock of the Night picks Clayton Carpenter
“look for car to grind to grind this fight out and pick up his eighth win is in as many fights”
MMA Lock of the Night picks Clayton Carpenter
“look for car to grind to grind this fight out and pick up his eighth win is in as many fights”
MM
MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Lucas Rocha VALUE
“I'm going to slightly go with the underdog and Lucas Rocha to win this fight optically I feel like he's going to be more composed he's going to be moving forward which will help him in the eyes of the judges I think he should land more volume and if he could defend the takedowns or work back up when taken down avoid getting his back taken I think he does more and wins this fight I think a finish in the later round toocha is live if this fight is going his way slow cooking Carpenter maybe he could put him away late Carpenter is tough though he's undefeated he comes from a good gym so I'm going to give him the respect and say he goes to decision but Lucas Rocha is going to be my official prediction”
MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Lucas Rocha VALUE
“I'm going to slightly go with the underdog and Lucas Rocha to win this fight optically I feel like he's going to be more composed he's going to be moving forward which will help him in the eyes of the judges I think he should land more volume and if he could defend the takedowns or work back up when taken down avoid getting his back taken I think he does more and wins this fight I think a finish in the later round toocha is live if this fight is going his way slow cooking Carpenter maybe he could put him away late Carpenter is tough though he's undefeated he comes from a good gym so I'm going to give him the respect and say he goes to decision but Lucas Rocha is going to be my official prediction”
LM
Livid Larry MMA picks Lucas Rocha
“I'm going with Lucas Rocha in this one”
Livid Larry MMA picks Lucas Rocha
“I'm going with Lucas Rocha in this one”
WP
We Want Picks picks Clayton Carpenter VALUE
“I think Clayton Carpenter is just too good of a Grappler and his opponent gets outg grappled”
$1.49
We Want Picks picks Clayton Carpenter VALUE
“I think Clayton Carpenter is just too good of a Grappler and his opponent gets outg grappled”
$1.49
KH
KhaledMMA picks Clayton Carpenter
“اتوقع حيكون يتن كاربنتر يفوز”
KhaledMMA picks Clayton Carpenter
“اتوقع حيكون يتن كاربنتر يفوز”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Carpenter8-2
L
Ochoa
May '26
L
Filho
Oct '25
L
Ulanbekov
Jan '25
W
Rocha
Oct '24
W
Ronderos
Feb '23
Rocha18-2
W
Nicoll
Oct '25
L
Carpenter
Oct '24