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UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Dawson v Diego Ferreira Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus44 picks · conf 65/99
Dawson 34
10 Diego Ferreira
TbBMTM pick Dawson
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Dawson 23-3-1 VS 23-8 Diego Ferreira
5'10" height 5'5"
156 lb weight 215 lb
72" reach 64"
32 age —
Switch stance Switch
3.1 strikes landed / min 3.7
52% striking accuracy 58%
2.0 strikes absorbed / min 2.4
45% striking defence 64%
3.6 takedowns / 15 min 2.0
38% takedown accuracy 60%
57% takedown defence 80%
1.2 submissions / 15 min 1.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CC Combat Sports Central picks Grant Dawson “Grant Dawson gets it done”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Grant Dawson “I think Grant Dawson is going to find a way to actually tie him out with the wrestling and um actually maybe get it win like a convincing decision” $1.40
BA babysharpMMA🦈 picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I think Grant Dawson looks pretty sharp here too man I like both of them still”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Carlos Diego Ferreira “give me f plus 225 I'm gonna pick this money line”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Grant Dawson “Grant Grant Dawson's my pick”
ES etoft21 sports picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I'm on two right now this one I went with Grant Dawson plus Umar Nurmagomedov”
JG Joe Giannetti picks Carlos Diego Ferreira VALUE “I'm going to go with Carlos Diego Ferreira Carlos Carlos Diego Ferreira Ferreira” $3.00
JG Joe Giannetti picks Grant Dawson “Grant Dawson Grant Dawson Dawson versus Carlos Diego Ferreira”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Grant Dawson “yo siento that va a poder contra el brasileño contra Carlos Diego Ferreira”
TS The Ariel Helwani Show picks Grant Dawson “if Umar Nurmagomedov doesn't finish him in the first two rounds he's [__]”
CA ContraGolpe - Analisa picks Grant Dawson “acho que é Vitória do dolson”
WP We Want Picks picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I think Grant I can trust Grant Dawson to be boring and if he's boring he wins”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Dawson23-3-1
W Rębecki Submission · R3 May '26
L Torres KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Ferreira Decision · R3 Jan '25
W García KO/TKO · R2 Oct '24
W Solecki Decision · R3 Jun '24
Diego Ferreira23-8
L Hernandez KO/TKO · R2 Sep '25
L Dawson Decision · R3 Jan '25
W Rębecki KO/TKO · R3 May '24
W Johnson KO/TKO · R2 May '23
L Gamrot KO/TKO · R2 Dec '21