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UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
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JC GR Cannonier vs RodriguesMain Card · Middleweight YZ CK Zalal vs KattarMain Card · Featherweight ES DB Shahbazyan vs BudkaMain Card · Middleweight NS IB Sadykhov vs BonfimMain Card · Lightweight AP RV Petroski vs VieiraMain Card · Middleweight JD CM Delgado vs MatthewsPreliminary Card · Featherweight AH KS Hill vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight RE JA Estevam vs AguilarPreliminary Card · Flyweight GB KW Bonfim vs WilliamsPreliminary Card · Welterweight ES VM Smith vs MoralesPreliminary Card · Bantamweight VW DM Walker vs MayesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight JC JA Cavalcanti vs AvilaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Smith v Morales Bantamweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus63 picks · conf 73/99
Smith 47
16 Morales
PSBDGT pick Smith
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Smith 9-1 VS 16-10 Morales
5'9" height 5'7"
136 lb weight 136 lb
71" reach 70"
23 age 35
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.0 strikes landed / min 4.0
41% striking accuracy 36%
5.1 strikes absorbed / min 4.5
43% striking defence 53%
5.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.4
45% takedown accuracy 30%
100% takedown defence 65%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GM GLO MMA picks Elijah Smith VALUE “I'm going to go ahead and pick Elijah Elijah Smith”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Elijah Smith VALUE $1.74
TD The Rambling Dad picks Vince Morales VALUE $1.14
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Elijah Smith “I'm officially picking Elijah Smith” $1.67
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Vince Morales VALUE “I'm going with Vince Morales to pull through” $2.21
WS We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Vince Morales VALUE “I'm riding with my 1.5 units on Vince Morales at plus 185” $2.85
FI FightPicksPro picks Vince Morales “I'm picking Vince Morales in this matchup”
HB Home of Bets picks Vince Morales “I'm intrigued to see how Morales does”
WP We Want Picks picks Elijah Smith “I'm gonna pick Elijah because of the potential”
CC Chronic Combat Conversations picks Vince Morales “I've heard some chatter on Vince Morales Vince Morales Morales I think he's a solid veteran Fighter”
CC Chronic Combat Conversations picks Elijah Smith VALUE “I may have been like surfing to next week's lines and I've been like oh Vince Morales Vince Morales Morales is fighting he's gonna lose... I put uh two units parlay with dricus dupus uh Elijah Elijah Smith”
NO NolanKnowsMMA picks Elijah Smith “for the pick you know I think Elijah Smith does have enough in the tank to win the first two rounds”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Smith9-1
W Su-young Submission · R2 Mar '26
W Kazama KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
W Morales Decision · R3 Feb '25
Morales16-10
L Thicknesse Decision · R3 May '26
L Rosas Jr. Decision · R3 Mar '25
L Smith Decision · R3 Feb '25
L Lapilus Decision · R3 Sep '24
L Johns Decision · R3 Nov '22