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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Estevam v Santos Aguilar
Flyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Estevam 14-0
VS
12-4 Santos Aguilar
5'8"
height
5'4"
135 lb
weight
125 lb
69"
reach
63"
29
age
30
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
2.9
strikes landed / min
5.3
64%
striking accuracy
50%
3.4
strikes absorbed / min
2.6
34%
striking defence
48%
3.4
takedowns / 15 min
3.0
19%
takedown accuracy
29%
0%
takedown defence
53%
0.7
submissions / 15 min
1.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
GM
GLO MMA picks Rafael Estevam VALUE
“I'm picking Rafael Estevam just because like he's the bigger guy and I don't like Jesús Santos Aguilar's boxing all he has is grappling”
GLO MMA picks Rafael Estevam VALUE
“I'm picking Rafael Estevam just because like he's the bigger guy and I don't like Jesús Santos Aguilar's boxing all he has is grappling”
MP
MMA Pros Pick picks Rafael Estevam
“I'm picking estan to take a victory in this fight”
MMA Pros Pick picks Rafael Estevam
“I'm picking estan to take a victory in this fight”
MN
MMA Lock of the Night picks Rafael Estevam VALUE
“I believe Rafael Estevam is chalkworthy in this spot but you luckily have good hedging opportunities on the Jesús Santos Aguilar side should you look to go that route I do like Jesús Santos Aguilar by submission in round three around that plus 3,800 line if I'm not mistaken but reCalvin Kattardless I believe Rafael Estevam wins this Don'Tale Mayestchup and I think he is parlay worthy”
$1.22
MMA Lock of the Night picks Rafael Estevam VALUE
“I believe Rafael Estevam is chalkworthy in this spot but you luckily have good hedging opportunities on the Jesús Santos Aguilar side should you look to go that route I do like Jesús Santos Aguilar by submission in round three around that plus 3,800 line if I'm not mistaken but reCalvin Kattardless I believe Rafael Estevam wins this Don'Tale Mayestchup and I think he is parlay worthy”
$1.22
AM
AA MMA picks Rafael Estevam
“I Think Jesus is going to get it I'm a big fan of his he's been making a lot of noise in the division having a lot of good finishes”
AA MMA picks Rafael Estevam
“I Think Jesus is going to get it I'm a big fan of his he's been making a lot of noise in the division having a lot of good finishes”
AM
AA MMA picks Jesús Santos Aguilar
“voy por ti harnos orgullosos de ser mexiEVENT_DETAILSos tenes la sangre somos guerreros no me falles Vamos pues tenemos a Rafael Estevam contra Jesús Santos Aguilar Jesús yo te estimo demasiado Yo te estoy viendo por unos años ya y me enEVENT_DETAILSta ver que cada vez que peleas haces algo interesante”
AA MMA picks Jesús Santos Aguilar
“voy por ti harnos orgullosos de ser mexiEVENT_DETAILSos tenes la sangre somos guerreros no me falles Vamos pues tenemos a Rafael Estevam contra Jesús Santos Aguilar Jesús yo te estimo demasiado Yo te estoy viendo por unos años ya y me enEVENT_DETAILSta ver que cada vez que peleas haces algo interesante”
AM
AA MMA picks Rafael Estevam
“tenemos a Rafael Estevam contra Jesús Santos Aguilar”
AA MMA picks Rafael Estevam
“tenemos a Rafael Estevam contra Jesús Santos Aguilar”
SM
Script MMA picks Rafael Estevam VALUE
“last leg on the three leg is Rafael Estevam eston undefeated fighter versing Jesús Santos Aguilar Santos Aguilar I you why do you have Rafael Estevam Jesús Santos Aguilar Santos Aguilar why do you think he's a solid fighter solid fighter well I mean his debut he had 9 Minutes of control time shot 22 takedowns 22 takedowns I don't think that's like Mor Rob numbers I don't think people know how crazy that is 22 take 11 takedowns is a lot I don't care how many he completed yeah he shot 22 that's unlimited cardio yeah that's un that's like Mor Rob that's like Mor Rob shoo completed three but still even though they listen I can shoot 22 times if I get three and I'm controlling you 9 minutes that's annoying actually some guy was just trying to hug you yeah it is annoying it is kind of boring but it's like it's good for the parties you want to make some money you got to go yeah we got to go we got to go that way got to go that way you know what I'm saying also he has a 6 and a half reach advantage on top of that 4 in height Advantage oh damn Jes how tall is Jesús Santos Aguilar Santos Aguilar damn oh [ __ ] 54 wait what division is this flyweight 54 so how tall is Rafael Estevam holy [ __ ] Bro 58 damn he's pretty B9 reach Man 6 bro 69 reach 5'8 at flyweight and he's a Grappler rafhael is a lock Yousef Z edmon shabaz and Rafa ston lock it in that is a three like”
Script MMA picks Rafael Estevam VALUE
“last leg on the three leg is Rafael Estevam eston undefeated fighter versing Jesús Santos Aguilar Santos Aguilar I you why do you have Rafael Estevam Jesús Santos Aguilar Santos Aguilar why do you think he's a solid fighter solid fighter well I mean his debut he had 9 Minutes of control time shot 22 takedowns 22 takedowns I don't think that's like Mor Rob numbers I don't think people know how crazy that is 22 take 11 takedowns is a lot I don't care how many he completed yeah he shot 22 that's unlimited cardio yeah that's un that's like Mor Rob that's like Mor Rob shoo completed three but still even though they listen I can shoot 22 times if I get three and I'm controlling you 9 minutes that's annoying actually some guy was just trying to hug you yeah it is annoying it is kind of boring but it's like it's good for the parties you want to make some money you got to go yeah we got to go we got to go that way got to go that way you know what I'm saying also he has a 6 and a half reach advantage on top of that 4 in height Advantage oh damn Jes how tall is Jesús Santos Aguilar Santos Aguilar damn oh [ __ ] 54 wait what division is this flyweight 54 so how tall is Rafael Estevam holy [ __ ] Bro 58 damn he's pretty B9 reach Man 6 bro 69 reach 5'8 at flyweight and he's a Grappler rafhael is a lock Yousef Z edmon shabaz and Rafa ston lock it in that is a three like”
JB
Jewish Bettor picks Rafael Estevam
“I do have to favor s when it comes to um picking a winner”
$1.22
Jewish Bettor picks Rafael Estevam
“I do have to favor s when it comes to um picking a winner”
$1.22
WP
We Want Picks picks Rafael Estevam VALUE
“I am going to go eston here”
We Want Picks picks Rafael Estevam VALUE
“I am going to go eston here”
CC
Chronic Combat Conversations picks Jesús Santos Aguilar
“if he doesn't finish him then he's going to lose in my opinion”
Chronic Combat Conversations picks Jesús Santos Aguilar
“if he doesn't finish him then he's going to lose in my opinion”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Estevam14-0
L
Ewing
Apr '26
W
Bunes
Aug '25
W
Aguilar
Feb '25
W
Johnson
Nov '23
Santos Aguilar12-4
L
Mudaerji
Mar '26
W
Gurule
Sep '25
L
Estevam
Feb '25
W
Nicoll
Aug '24
W
Mendonça
Feb '24