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Gaethje vs FizievMain Card · Lightweight
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Bahamondes vs TurnerMain Card · Lightweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Gaethje v Fiziev
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Gaethje 27-5
VS
13-5 Fiziev
5'11"
height
5'8"
155 lb
weight
155 lb
70"
reach
71"
37
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Switch
7.4
strikes landed / min
4.9
57%
striking accuracy
51%
5.8
strikes absorbed / min
5.0
54%
striking defence
49%
0.7
takedowns / 15 min
0.3
34%
takedown accuracy
40%
68%
takedown defence
89%
0.2
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
BG
Bradley Gleason picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“anytime I can get plus money on Justin Gaethje give it to me every single time”
$2.40
Bradley Gleason picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“anytime I can get plus money on Justin Gaethje give it to me every single time”
$2.40
GP
Greedo Plays picks Rafael Fiziev
“Justin gagei money line”
Greedo Plays picks Rafael Fiziev
“Justin gagei money line”
MD
mdminds picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“I like Justin Gaethje.”
mdminds picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“I like Justin Gaethje.”
MD
mdminds picks Rafael Fiziev VALUE
“I have Rafael Fiziev.”
mdminds picks Rafael Fiziev VALUE
“I have Rafael Fiziev.”
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Rafael Fiziev
“I'm going with Rafael Fiziev”
Capper Comparison Picks picks Rafael Fiziev
“I'm going with Rafael Fiziev”
ES
etoft21 sports picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“give me Justin Gaethje here plus first leg”
etoft21 sports picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“give me Justin Gaethje here plus first leg”
WT
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“I have gay at plus money”
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“I have gay at plus money”
KU
Kunath picks Justin Gaethje
“I think he's going to win and I talked about in the predictions video as to why I also wrote on the official betting article why I think Justin Gaethje wins and what you notice in that first fight because I had some people in the comments telling me like ah the first fight it was pretty close go back rewatch it and I typically do when I'm on the fence about fights like this I thought I remembered it differently based on the way the people were talking in the comments but it was exactly what I thought it was Justin Justin Gaethje won that fight because he really took it too Rafael Fiziev in the second and third round even when he was rocked in those rounds was able to recover very well the damage happened early so he was able to get his wits about him and then he took over later in the rounds and I don't think he did that because fiz got tired I don't think he fought him at a pace where fys was going to fatigue at that striking Pace no it was more Justin Justin Gaethje figuring out his opponent because after the first round that jab from Justin Gaethje was absolutely money he also did a very good job of when he crashed the pocket in Clos distance to land strikes on the break and you look in that third round against Rafael Fiziev he was able to secure takedown really easily it was late Rafael Fiziev probably didn't care that he got taken down wasn't really thinking about it but it just shows that if gatei wants to do that he can do that really whenever he wants but I bring him up because I picked him to win but I'm not playing him on DraftKings because he probably doesn't score that much three rounds they're primarily going to strike last time they fought he won he scored 77 points I'm not interested”
Kunath picks Justin Gaethje
“I think he's going to win and I talked about in the predictions video as to why I also wrote on the official betting article why I think Justin Gaethje wins and what you notice in that first fight because I had some people in the comments telling me like ah the first fight it was pretty close go back rewatch it and I typically do when I'm on the fence about fights like this I thought I remembered it differently based on the way the people were talking in the comments but it was exactly what I thought it was Justin Justin Gaethje won that fight because he really took it too Rafael Fiziev in the second and third round even when he was rocked in those rounds was able to recover very well the damage happened early so he was able to get his wits about him and then he took over later in the rounds and I don't think he did that because fiz got tired I don't think he fought him at a pace where fys was going to fatigue at that striking Pace no it was more Justin Justin Gaethje figuring out his opponent because after the first round that jab from Justin Gaethje was absolutely money he also did a very good job of when he crashed the pocket in Clos distance to land strikes on the break and you look in that third round against Rafael Fiziev he was able to secure takedown really easily it was late Rafael Fiziev probably didn't care that he got taken down wasn't really thinking about it but it just shows that if gatei wants to do that he can do that really whenever he wants but I bring him up because I picked him to win but I'm not playing him on DraftKings because he probably doesn't score that much three rounds they're primarily going to strike last time they fought he won he scored 77 points I'm not interested”
WW
Wages & Warriors picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“I take Justin Gaethje in it. It's just plus money.”
$2.35
Wages & Warriors picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“I take Justin Gaethje in it. It's just plus money.”
$2.35
CO
Covers picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“I think Justin Justin Gaethjeaethje still Justin GaethjeNA be fine and I think you know if you build his confidence back I'm sure he's going to be able to to go back as good as he was”
$2.30
Covers picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“I think Justin Justin Gaethjeaethje still Justin GaethjeNA be fine and I think you know if you build his confidence back I'm sure he's going to be able to to go back as good as he was”
$2.30
UC
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Justin Gaethje
“Justin Justin Gaethjeaethje I got over 2.5 or Justin Gaethje to win”
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Justin Gaethje
“Justin Justin Gaethjeaethje I got over 2.5 or Justin Gaethje to win”
NZ
No Escape Zone picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“if he beats Dan hooker that's the problem solved”
No Escape Zone picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“if he beats Dan hooker that's the problem solved”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Gaethje27-5
W
Topuria
Jun '26
W
Pimblett
Jan '26
W
Fiziev
Mar '25
L
Holloway
Apr '24
W
Poirier
Jul '23
Fiziev13-5
W
Torres
Jun '26
L
Ruffy
Feb '26
W
Bahamondes
Jun '25
L
Gaethje
Mar '25
L
Gamrot
Sep '23