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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Almabayev v Johnson
Flyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Almabayev 23-3
VS
19-8 Johnson
5'4"
height
5'9"
125 lb
weight
126 lb
65"
reach
70"
32
age
35
Orthodox
stance
Switch
2.1
strikes landed / min
4.2
56%
striking accuracy
47%
1.0
strikes absorbed / min
3.1
59%
striking defence
54%
5.1
takedowns / 15 min
1.9
50%
takedown accuracy
66%
50%
takedown defence
55%
1.7
submissions / 15 min
1.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
CM
CornerTalk MMA picks Asu Almabayev
“I'm gonna have to just go with my gut and say Asu Almabayev is going to pull it off”
CornerTalk MMA picks Asu Almabayev
“I'm gonna have to just go with my gut and say Asu Almabayev is going to pull it off”
CB
Champ Bets picks Asu Almabayev
“It's going to be Asu Almabayev.”
Champ Bets picks Asu Almabayev
“It's going to be Asu Almabayev.”
LS
Lucid Sports picks Asu Almabayev
“I'm I'mma lean uh Asu Almabayev in this one, man. I think he I think he get the job done.”
Lucid Sports picks Asu Almabayev
“I'm I'mma lean uh Asu Almabayev in this one, man. I think he I think he get the job done.”
TA
The True Analyst picks Asu Almabayev
“I say Asu Almabayev by decision, guys.”
The True Analyst picks Asu Almabayev
“I say Asu Almabayev by decision, guys.”
BM
Breakdown MMA picks Asu Almabayev
“It's possibly a split decision, but I do n't see Johnson knocking him out or him knocking Johnson out, no, uh yes, a decision, a decision in favor of Alma Valet.”
Breakdown MMA picks Asu Almabayev
“It's possibly a split decision, but I do n't see Johnson knocking him out or him knocking Johnson out, no, uh yes, a decision, a decision in favor of Alma Valet.”
JH
Jamahal Hill picks Charles Johnson
“You pulling Charles Johnson, right?”
Jamahal Hill picks Charles Johnson
“You pulling Charles Johnson, right?”
NI
Nick23mma picks Asu Almabayev
“So I'm going to go Asu Almabayev just kind of grappling him winning at 2928 decision.”
Nick23mma picks Asu Almabayev
“So I'm going to go Asu Almabayev just kind of grappling him winning at 2928 decision.”
CM
Clutch Attitude MMA picks Asu Almabayev
“I'm just going to go with Asu Almabayev to get this done. Guys, he's been he's been doing good, but he's just not that consistent as of late.”
Clutch Attitude MMA picks Asu Almabayev
“I'm just going to go with Asu Almabayev to get this done. Guys, he's been he's been doing good, but he's just not that consistent as of late.”
YO
YoungPastey picks Asu Almabayev
“I have a little more faith in Asu Almabayev's cardio at this point given that he came out and got that third round submission after getting dominated the first two rounds. Yeah, I think we see a a complete dominant grappling display display for from Asu Almabayev for three rounds and the flyweight looks good over Charles Johnson.”
YoungPastey picks Asu Almabayev
“I have a little more faith in Asu Almabayev's cardio at this point given that he came out and got that third round submission after getting dominated the first two rounds. Yeah, I think we see a a complete dominant grappling display display for from Asu Almabayev for three rounds and the flyweight looks good over Charles Johnson.”
HN
Hyde Park Ninjas picks Charles Johnson
“I'm going Charles Johnson. Final call. I'm switching it. I'm going Charles Johnson.”
Hyde Park Ninjas picks Charles Johnson
“I'm going Charles Johnson. Final call. I'm switching it. I'm going Charles Johnson.”
DS
DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“I'm on the side of Charles Johnson.”
DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“I'm on the side of Charles Johnson.”
JM
Jay Jay MMA picks Asu Almabayev
“I think that Asu Almabayev is going to get it done probably by a decision”
Jay Jay MMA picks Asu Almabayev
“I think that Asu Almabayev is going to get it done probably by a decision”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Almabayev23-3
W
Johnson
Jun '26
W
Perez
Nov '25
W
Ochoa
Jul '25
L
Kape
Mar '25
W
Nicolau
Oct '24
Johnson19-8
L
Almabayev
Jun '26
W
Silva
Mar '26
L
Perez
Jan '26
W
Kavanagh
Aug '25
L
Temirov
Mar '25