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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Castañeda v Vologdin Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus142 picks · conf 99/99
Castañeda 76
66 Vologdin
CWLMTA pick Castañeda
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Castañeda 21-7 VS 12-4-1 Vologdin
— height 5'5"
— weight 136 lb
— reach 65"
34 age 26
Switch stance Orthodox
4.7 strikes landed / min —
50% striking accuracy —
5.2 strikes absorbed / min —
54% striking defence —
1.8 takedowns / 15 min —
35% takedown accuracy —
71% takedown defence —
0.1 submissions / 15 min —
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
J- J-Dog picks Mark Vologdin VALUE “I'm going to go with Mark Vulgar in to win.”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks John Castañeda VALUE “I think where you can really take advantage in this fight is by landing takedowns... he often goes to decision”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Mark Vologdin VALUE “I think Mark Vologdin is going to be able to wobble Sexy Mexi here... I even think he might even be winning some of the minutes”
SD SDAWGSMMATALK picks Mark Vologdin VALUE “We're going with Mark Vologdin in”
GM GLO MMA picks John Castañeda VALUE “Mark Vulden to get this [__] done via first round KO.”
CE CeilingMMA picks John Castañeda “I'm going to go with John Castañeda based on his range and UFC grit and experience”
MC McManusMMA picks John Castañeda VALUE “I'm going to go with Vagden on this one”
US Uselyis picks Mark Vologdin “I'm taking Mark Vologdin”
VM Voice of MMA picks Mark Vologdin VALUE “I'm taking Mark Vologdin over John Castañeda”
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks John Castañeda “my money's just lean John Castañeda just cuz of the could fall into that. ... So, I'll lean John Castañeda”
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks John Castañeda “I have John Castañeda winning. I I'm leaning John Castañeda right now.”
UG UFC Genie picks Mark Vologdin “I'm actually going with Mark Vologdin ... I'm going to go with Mark Vologdin here to But I'm going Mark Vologdin in here.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Castañeda21-7
L Gutiérrez Decision · R3 Apr '25
L Marcos Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Kyung-ho Decision · R3 Nov '23
W Gafurov Decision · R3 Jun '23
L Santos KO/TKO · R2 Oct '22
Vologdin12-4-1
No settled fights on record.