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Tobias vs NurgozhayEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
CO
Holloway vs OliveiraMain Card · Lightweight
CB
RR
Borralho vs RidderMain Card · Middleweight
RF
RJ
Font vs Rosas Jr.Main Card · Bantamweight
DD
MJ
Dober vs JohnsonMain Card · Lightweight
GR
BF
Rodrigues vs FerreiraMain Card · Middleweight
CG
XL
Garbrandt vs LongPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
RT
AM
Turcios vs MontesPreliminary Card · Featherweight
CD
NT
Durden vs TumendemberelPreliminary Card · Flyweight
SM
JA
Mudaerji vs AguilarEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
LF
RB
Fernandez vs BellatoEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
DJ
CB
Johnson vs BrundagePreliminary Card · Middleweight
RT
DN
Tobias vs NurgozhayEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Tobias v Nurgozhay
Light Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Tobias 0-0
VS
10-2 Nurgozhay
6'1"
height
6'2"
203 lb
weight
205 lb
74"
reach
74"
23
age
29
Orthodox
stance
Southpaw
—
strikes landed / min
2.5
—
striking accuracy
63%
—
strikes absorbed / min
3.1
—
striking defence
52%
—
takedowns / 15 min
1.9
—
takedown accuracy
68%
—
takedown defence
78%
—
submissions / 15 min
1.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
DM
DMan&MariPulls picks Rafael Tobias
“I think we got to rock with Rafael Tobias.”
DMan&MariPulls picks Rafael Tobias
“I think we got to rock with Rafael Tobias.”
WB
WeeklyMMA Breakdowns picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“I'm taking uh Raphael by sub in round one.”
WeeklyMMA Breakdowns picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“I'm taking uh Raphael by sub in round one.”
DY
DylanMMA picks Diyar Nurgozhay
“I'll go with him by sub, I guess.”
DylanMMA picks Diyar Nurgozhay
“I'll go with him by sub, I guess.”
DY
DylanMMA picks Rafael Tobias
“I'll go Rafael Tobias.”
DylanMMA picks Rafael Tobias
“I'll go Rafael Tobias.”
MT
Mic Talks picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“Rafael Tobias to get it done by submission”
Mic Talks picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“Rafael Tobias to get it done by submission”
AN
AntUFC picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“I'm going to go off TKO by Rafael Tobias”
AntUFC picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“I'm going to go off TKO by Rafael Tobias”
KM
Keep it a Buck Media picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“I think he finds the submission and locks up something.”
Keep it a Buck Media picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“I think he finds the submission and locks up something.”
LM
Lightning MMA picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“Rafael Tobias by first submission”
Lightning MMA picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“Rafael Tobias by first submission”
TD
The DubCast picks Rafael Tobias
“We're going with Rafael Tobias.”
The DubCast picks Rafael Tobias
“We're going with Rafael Tobias.”
JE
JetChaosMMA picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“So give me Rafael Tobias again. This I you guys don't really need an explanation on this. He's got half an inch of reach on him. He's younger. He's got total momentum here.”
JetChaosMMA picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“So give me Rafael Tobias again. This I you guys don't really need an explanation on this. He's got half an inch of reach on him. He's younger. He's got total momentum here.”
VM
Voice of MMA picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“I'm taking Rafael Tobias minus 180 to win this fight”
$1.56
Voice of MMA picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“I'm taking Rafael Tobias minus 180 to win this fight”
$1.56
NI
Nick23mma picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“I'm going to go with Rafael Tobias on this one.”
Nick23mma picks Rafael Tobias VALUE
“I'm going to go with Rafael Tobias on this one.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Tobias0-0
L
Nurgozhay
Mar '26
Nurgozhay10-2
W
Tobias
Mar '26
L
Satybaldiev
Aug '25
L
Ribeiro
Mar '25