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UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Hernandez v Diego Ferreira Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus107 picks · conf 88/99
Hernandez 71
36 Diego Ferreira
TPBPPJ pick Hernandez
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Hernandez 18-8 VS 23-8 Diego Ferreira
5'9" height 5'5"
155 lb weight 215 lb
72" reach 64"
33 age —
Orthodox stance Switch
2.6 strikes landed / min 3.7
49% striking accuracy 58%
4.1 strikes absorbed / min 2.4
64% striking defence 64%
1.9 takedowns / 15 min 2.0
52% takedown accuracy 60%
58% takedown defence 80%
1.3 submissions / 15 min 1.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE “I'm gonna take Alexander Hernandez here... I'm really confident in him in this fight.” $1.98
UW Uncle Weezy picks Carlos Diego Ferreira “I'm picking him to win it by third round knockout.”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Carlos Diego Ferreira “Carlos Diego Ferreira. Уажәоуп”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE “Alexander Hernandez дхынҳәит”
ND Nina Drama picks Alexander Hernandez
DA DagMMA picks Carlos Diego Ferreira “Carlos Diego Ferreira as a dog and picking Fera.”
JA Jarheadislive picks Carlos Diego Ferreira “Atu Carlos Diego Ferreira wagittaamat yabtek, Kelvin Gastelum”
BO BotmfeederMMA picks Alexander Hernandez “I'm going to take Alexander Hernandez on the line.”
RA Ringside Report Network - Combat Sports Authority picks Alexander Hernandez “end it with Alexander Alexander Hernandez as well.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE “I like Alexander Hernandez.”
EV Evod9373 picks Alexander Hernandez “EVENT_DETAILS David Martinez Alexander Hernandez Alexander Hernandez Alexander Hernandez Diego Lopes”
HN Hidden Source News picks Alexander Hernandez “I'll side with Alexander Hernandez to get the win. My betting exposure here will be light, but I'll include him in a few small parlays.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Hernandez18-8
L García Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Ferreira KO/TKO · R2 Sep '25
W Hooper KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
W Holobaugh Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Hubbard Decision · R3 Oct '24
Diego Ferreira23-8
L Hernandez KO/TKO · R2 Sep '25
L Dawson Decision · R3 Jan '25
W Rębecki KO/TKO · R3 May '24
W Johnson KO/TKO · R2 May '23
L Gamrot KO/TKO · R2 Dec '21