UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · breakdown
Picks, timestamped
entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
SP
Sam Patterson
v Kiefer Crosbie
PROP · SUBMISSION
WON
Sam Patterson
v Kiefer Crosbie
PROP · SUBMISSION
WON
“I like Peterson here I'm saying first first round submission but I'm I'm staying away way because you know if he can if he can touch him if he manages to to get to the chin it's over for Peterson next fight which i s I'm surprised it's a prelin because this is going to be a banger we got Manel Kape taking on Belal Muhammad MV I'm picking MV here and I got him already and the odds started moving uh in favor of my direction he's he's a good wrestler he's an Elite wrestler and Manel Kape struggled in his last round striking with Felipe dos Santos uh he got taken down by dorak um he lost to Nicola because he managed to outg Grapple him and mokave is a much better Grappler than Nicola and vorak and is his I know people are looking at him like he has zero striking but he has good striking and he improves his striking he has I see him taking down Manel Kape controlling him getting the ground and pound even a submission I'm not that impressed by cop I think that his he's very Twitchy he can do stupid [ __ ] during the fight that would open it would would be an opening former who's very patient and has this um way of finding submissions like he found against Tim Elliott uh at the third round while team Elliott was winning but team Elliott has really good wrestling on his own I'm picking MV I think he does it by the decision or submission he's not going to knock out cup but he can get the submission or the decision win I'm confident I'm picking mukay he's going to win”
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CLV +1%
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Patterson’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
PP
Preston Parsons
v Oban Elliott
MONEYLINE
LOST
Preston Parsons
v Oban Elliott
MONEYLINE
LOST
“I'm picking Preston Parson's um confident pick next one we got Modestas Bukauskas against marcine prano I'm going to pick the underdog here I think prano is going to be the better the more volume Striker we know bascus is very cautious picks his shots um very well um but I think that Marin prho his experience his volume his let kicks are going to pose a a problem to basus now there is a age Gap 36 years old uh compared to 30 30 years old um and if we look at the stats it's going to be interesting let's let's move to the stats with these two so um reach bukas is going to have the reach switch Orthodox you can see so this is the volume the difference you got five 61 strikes L per minute per minute compared to 3.28 which is is almost double uh he you got better striking accuracy you got better defense so he observes 3.87 3.3 so you get better defense grappling we we don't see bowkus ever going uh to to take for a Tak down um so this is going to be mostly standing and the volume and the defense in my opinion um would be in favor of prio when it comes to the judges and that's why I'm picking prio to win by decision”
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CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.77
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entry: DraftKings · best in any region at publish
MM
Molly McCann
v Bruna Brasil
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
Molly McCann
v Bruna Brasil
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
“I'm going with beatball to win by knockout we saw what happened to Bruno Brazil against Dena Gomes I think we're going to see that again Bruno Brazil is a striker i' I've never seen her really using her her grappling um fighting I don't think she's going to use it now Molly McCann uh she had a terrible loss against Julia steno um and she also lost to blanchfield that's nothing to be ashamed of but you see her her Kryptonite is the grappling but I don't see Bruna Brasil forcing grappling with um Molly McCann I think Molly mcen is much more physical I think she's going to be much more dangerous in the pocket we know Brun Bruna Brasil has no Chin she got brutally knocked out by Denise Gomes and she's goingon to get brutally knocked out by Molly mccan I like her has a parley piece as well especially in in her home turf uh”
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CLV +2%
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McCann’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
DP
Daniel Pineda
v Nathaniel Wood
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
Daniel Pineda
v Nathaniel Wood
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
“I'm picking wood I think he's going to chop off Daniel's legs and I think he can get the The Knockout maybe the the second or the third round last fight he had was a competitive fight against ceris a lot of scrambling um which went too in favor as ceris I think wood is better than caceras I think wood will be able to utilize his leg kicks um and win okay he's focused um he got you know he this this is this is him all day I like him again as a parlay piece um to win I like his activity compared to pin so yeah”
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CLV −3%
◆ entry$4.60
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Pineda’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
GR
Gregory Rodrigues
v Christian Leroy Duncan
MONEYLINE
WON
Gregory Rodrigues
v Christian Leroy Duncan
MONEYLINE
WON
“I'm picking Gregory Rodrigues and I will explain why people are looking at Rodriguez as you know looking at his power with his striking but he's not even a a striker he's a Grappler that's his that's actually his his advantage that's where he shine ni he's a Jiu-Jitsu world champion a former Jiu-Jitsu world champion and um I see him getting the takedowns against Christian Leroy Duncan like although he knocked out Dennis Dulan Denis Stan controlled him a bit against the cage for a while but D Stan is no Grappler he has no takedowns Gregory Rodrigues is much more physical than Dennis tulun we saw what he did to Dennis tulun how easily took him down um and Gregory Rodriguez can both knock Christian Leroy or he can take him to the map and and submit him or get the gar pound and that's it when you see it Christian Le D Duncan um lost he lost to Armen petan and he actually got taken down by Armen petan let's see um their stats here where is it Armen petan and sorry Lor Donan and Rodriguez so um look at the amount of takedowns this guy gets on average 246 takedowns on average his Tak down defense is 100% I don't know if anyone want to take this guy down and this guy has a 50% takedown defense he's not going for takedowns Armen petran by the way Armen petan lost to a guy who's very similar to Gregory Rodriguez I forgot his name but um let's let's look at the just real quick because this is a very similar fight by the way so if we look at chriso L Duncan he lost to Arman petosan who lost to Rula Vieira Rula Vieira another very scary black Jiu-Jitsu guy and I think this fight is gonna end in the same way I think rodulfo I think Gregory R Rodriguez is gonna do to Christian Leroy Duncan what um is's gonna do to Christian junen what rulfo VI did to Arman petan that's that's what I think gonna happen”
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entry: BetMGM · best in any region at publish
PP
Paddy Pimblett
v King Green
MONEYLINE
WON
Paddy Pimblett
v King Green
MONEYLINE
WON
“I think Petty pimpl is a bit smarter than Jim Miller and I think that he's actually going to go for the takedowns um and he's not going to try to strike too much against Green but he's way way bigger he's more physical he has the reach advantage and I think he can find the chin like somehow he can knock out Bobby green Paddy Pimblett has decent chin um again he's fighting in his own turf which G which is going to play into his favorite he was never knocked out we're not going to see uh what Bobby green did to what's his name Grand Dawson who has no Chin whatsoever I think Petty pimpl is going to get the takedowns we saw what happened we saw what happened to B poby Green against Islam now I'm not saying that petty pimpl is anywhere near Islam but Islam finished him in the first round if this gets to uh three rounds and Patty knows that this is going to be his Advantage I think he's going to go and get the takedown will he get it I don't know King Green has good takedown defense but let's look what happened against Dawson Dawson couldn't even try to Grapple with him because he got knocked out in the first 30 seconds against Ferguson Ferguson touched him he he got he dropped him Turner is not a stri he's not a Grappler he's a striker Miller he didn't even try the grappling so you know who really the only person who tried to to take down King Green was Islam and he destroyed him so it really goes down to if Petty piml manages to get a take down and if Patty pinet manages to find to touch green which I think he will I think he's the much faster I wouldn't say faster but he's younger his reflexes are there um this going to have the judge's Advantage if it gets to a decision I like pimpl here and you get him as an underdog”
Line since pick
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no market data captured for this fight
TA
Tom Aspinall
v Curtis Blaydes
PROP · KO/TKO
WON
Tom Aspinall
v Curtis Blaydes
PROP · KO/TKO
WON
“I'm picking aspinal their first fight ended only because his knee blew up aspin's knee I see aspinal winning by first round knockout he's going to show the world why he's the best heavyweight I think he's also he could win against Jon Jones this guy is a new breed of of wrestlers of sorry heavyweights um he knocked out pavlovic which got got knocked out by which PA knocked out blades man I'm picking aspiral very confident this is going to be a first round or second round top finish by aspinal”
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Aspinall’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
LE
Leon Edwards
v Belal Muhammad
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
Leon Edwards
v Belal Muhammad
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
“I'm picking up Leon Edwards to win this is not going to be close man Leon Edwards has fought against wrestlers again against Covington Usman Usman uh Nate Diaz is not a wrestler but man Edwards just like Edwards is gonna be far bigger it's going to be longer it's going to have the Striking Advantage he's going to have um a takeown defense to keep uh this fight standing he could even get a takeown against against Belal Muhammad if he wants to play with him we saw what he did to kington I want you to look um again Leon Edwards is a very he's he's longer he's uh I think the far he's the more dangerous Striker and his grappling is underrated like we saw what he did to gunar Nelson who's gunar Nelson is a really good Grappler and he dominated that grappling exchanges I think Leon Edwards is going to keep this fight standing and I think he's gonna finish Bal Belal Muhammad by knockout”
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Edwards’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted