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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Usman v Collier
Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Usman 12-4
VS
13-10 Collier
6'2"
height
—
244 lb
weight
—
79"
reach
—
37
age
37
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
3.9
strikes landed / min
5.8
44%
striking accuracy
44%
3.2
strikes absorbed / min
5.1
57%
striking defence
50%
2.5
takedowns / 15 min
0.7
66%
takedown accuracy
33%
61%
takedown defence
67%
2.0
submissions / 15 min
0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
FF
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Mohammed Usman VALUE
“I gotta go Mohammed Usman this guy's huge... I think Mohammed Usman easily finds a chin on this one”
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Mohammed Usman VALUE
“I gotta go Mohammed Usman this guy's huge... I think Mohammed Usman easily finds a chin on this one”
TB
Totally Blitzed picks Mohammed Usman
“I'm definitely taking uzman and this guy”
Totally Blitzed picks Mohammed Usman
“I'm definitely taking uzman and this guy”
PP
Pure Picks picks Mohammed Usman VALUE
“we've got Mohammed Usman at minus 140. uh I think that's a pretty good bet you know this dude beat Junior taffa um you know now he's going up against a dude that's 13 and nine um nowhere near as physically dominant as him and given Jake Collier's ability to gas out after the first round uh I think uh I think this one is gonna be uh a grapple [ __ ] is what we like to call it uh I think Mohammed Usman is just gonna try to uh hold on to him okay eventually it's going to cause Jake Collier to uh gas out and that's gonna end up probably in a decision when for Mohammed Usman”
$1.71
Pure Picks picks Mohammed Usman VALUE
“we've got Mohammed Usman at minus 140. uh I think that's a pretty good bet you know this dude beat Junior taffa um you know now he's going up against a dude that's 13 and nine um nowhere near as physically dominant as him and given Jake Collier's ability to gas out after the first round uh I think uh I think this one is gonna be uh a grapple [ __ ] is what we like to call it uh I think Mohammed Usman is just gonna try to uh hold on to him okay eventually it's going to cause Jake Collier to uh gas out and that's gonna end up probably in a decision when for Mohammed Usman”
$1.71
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jake Collier VALUE
“Mohammed Usman fantasy score I'm going to take the less here and that is a low fantasy Score first of all I'm actually picking Jake Collier to to win this fight but even then like I said I think this fight's greasy I think it goes to decision on price picks you don't get points for control and I see Mohammed Usman you know trying to hold Jake Collier Against the Cage I can see Jake Collier holding Mohammed Usman against the cage and then on the feet Mohammed Usman has the worst volume I've ever seen in my life Mohammed Usman is landing less than a strike per minute he's Landing 0.92 strikes per minute which is atrocious with a 27 accuracy so he's not throwing anything and when he does throw something odds are it's it's not going to land um I don't see Jake Collier going for takedowns serious I don't think usman's going to get um you know take down defense points I don't think usman's going to get many significant strike points as well I think he can get a takedown or two but I don't really see much finishing upside on either side I think this does go the full 15. so yeah I just even if Usman does win this fight which I like like I said I'm picking him to lose even if he wins this fight I'm not sure he even gets to the 75.5 here on the fantasy score because it just doesn't do anything at all so give me the less here on Mohammed Usman fantasy score”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jake Collier VALUE
“Mohammed Usman fantasy score I'm going to take the less here and that is a low fantasy Score first of all I'm actually picking Jake Collier to to win this fight but even then like I said I think this fight's greasy I think it goes to decision on price picks you don't get points for control and I see Mohammed Usman you know trying to hold Jake Collier Against the Cage I can see Jake Collier holding Mohammed Usman against the cage and then on the feet Mohammed Usman has the worst volume I've ever seen in my life Mohammed Usman is landing less than a strike per minute he's Landing 0.92 strikes per minute which is atrocious with a 27 accuracy so he's not throwing anything and when he does throw something odds are it's it's not going to land um I don't see Jake Collier going for takedowns serious I don't think usman's going to get um you know take down defense points I don't think usman's going to get many significant strike points as well I think he can get a takedown or two but I don't really see much finishing upside on either side I think this does go the full 15. so yeah I just even if Usman does win this fight which I like like I said I'm picking him to lose even if he wins this fight I'm not sure he even gets to the 75.5 here on the fantasy score because it just doesn't do anything at all so give me the less here on Mohammed Usman fantasy score”
WP
We Want Picks picks Mohammed Usman VALUE
“I do think Usman wins this fight I think his athleticism his size he's a true Big Boy heavyweight I think it's gonna be a little too much for Jake”
We Want Picks picks Mohammed Usman VALUE
“I do think Usman wins this fight I think his athleticism his size he's a true Big Boy heavyweight I think it's gonna be a little too much for Jake”
AO
Andrew Osantowski picks Mohammed Usman
“Jake Collier against Muhammad uzman I'm gonna side with uzman here I mean I I think the guy did do a pretty good job in his last fight against Junior tawfa because junior tawfa is a dangerous guy and uh there was times where I thought Tom really kind of might have had it who's been hurt but um who's been hung in there beat Zach polaga who I think is a good win too so I I do like the way he's been looks and it just looks like Collier is kind of on the way out here man he's on a three-point losing skid so just kind of really hard to see what this guy's doing or what he's up to but I'm gonna I'm gonna start with uzman”
Andrew Osantowski picks Mohammed Usman
“Jake Collier against Muhammad uzman I'm gonna side with uzman here I mean I I think the guy did do a pretty good job in his last fight against Junior tawfa because junior tawfa is a dangerous guy and uh there was times where I thought Tom really kind of might have had it who's been hurt but um who's been hung in there beat Zach polaga who I think is a good win too so I I do like the way he's been looks and it just looks like Collier is kind of on the way out here man he's on a three-point losing skid so just kind of really hard to see what this guy's doing or what he's up to but I'm gonna I'm gonna start with uzman”
DO
DonJMMA picks Mohammed Usman
“in my opinion Mohammed Usman will knock Jake Collier out in the first round”
DonJMMA picks Mohammed Usman
“in my opinion Mohammed Usman will knock Jake Collier out in the first round”
WP
WillMartin UFC Fight Predictions picks Jake Collier VALUE
“as a prediction I'm going to pick Jake Collier I think he might win a decision here”
$2.10
WillMartin UFC Fight Predictions picks Jake Collier VALUE
“as a prediction I'm going to pick Jake Collier I think he might win a decision here”
$2.10
MM
MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Mohammed Usman
“I think he can eventually wear him down and probably get him out of there in the later rounds via KO TKO um I just don't trust Collier at this point”
MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Mohammed Usman
“I think he can eventually wear him down and probably get him out of there in the later rounds via KO TKO um I just don't trust Collier at this point”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Usman12-4
W
Abdelwahab
Jun '25
L
Petersen
Jul '24
L
Parkin
Mar '24
W
Collier
Sep '23
W
Pauga
Aug '22
Collier13-10
L
Usman
Sep '23
L
Buday
Apr '23
L
Barnett
Sep '22
L
Arlovski
Apr '22
W
Sherman
Jan '22