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UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Nelson v Padilla Featherweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus26 picks · conf 50/99
Nelson 8
18 Padilla
DATSUX pick Nelson
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Nelson 17-6-1 VS 16-5 Padilla
5'11" height 6'1"
155 lb weight 145 lb
71" reach 76"
35 age 29
Switch stance Orthodox
2.7 strikes landed / min 6.5
44% striking accuracy 42%
3.6 strikes absorbed / min 5.2
61% striking defence 53%
2.5 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
31% takedown accuracy 0%
56% takedown defence 100%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Kyle Nelson “Kyle Nelson Nelson to win Kyle Nelson Nelson shocked me last time so this fight I'm not too confident”
TP The City Life Project picks Fernando Padilla VALUE “I'm going with Fernando P padila” $1.40
BF Bobby Bets Fights picks Fernando Padilla VALUE “I'm gonna go with Fernanda PD in the matchup” $1.41
FI FightBookMMA picks Fernando Padilla “I'm gonna go with my boy Fernando Padilla Padilla um I'm thinking it's going to be a k open bro” $1.40
KU Kunath picks Fernando Padilla “I can't and stomach playing Kyle Nelson against Fernando Padilla”
TB Totally Blitzed picks Fernando Padilla VALUE “Fernando Padilla minus 230” $1.43
WP We Want Picks picks Fernando Padilla VALUE “I think Fernando Padilla is going to win this fight... D is going to light him up in the pocket neum work him and then get the Finish” $90.00
SD Santino DeFranco picks Fernando Padilla “I'm probably gonna go Padilla”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Fernando Padilla VALUE “I think that Fernando Padilla is gonna win... by unanimous decision” $1.42
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Fernando Padilla “he's Fernando Padilla money line”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Fernando Padilla VALUE “I do like Padilla in this one at 8 900 and this is another fight that I think finishes I think all these fights you know finish inside the distance here” $90.00
BP Boxing MMA Picks picks Fernando Padilla “my pick is going to be Fernando Padilla”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Nelson17-6-1
L McKinney KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
W Frevola Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Garcia KO/TKO · R1 Sep '24
W Algeo KO/TKO · R1 Mar '24
W Padilla Decision · R3 Sep '23
Padilla16-5
L Woodson KO/TKO · R1 Dec '24
W Pajuelo Submission · R1 Mar '24
L Nelson Decision · R3 Sep '23
W Erosa KO/TKO · R1 Apr '23