Choose a fight to analyse
BG
GD
Green vs DawsonFight Card · Lightweight
JP
AA
Pyfer vs AlhassanFight Card · Middleweight
JB
AM
Buckley vs MoronoFight Card · Welterweight
DD
RG
Dober vs GlennFight Card · Lightweight
BA
AH
Algeo vs HernandezFight Card · Featherweight
KK
DB
Kowalkiewicz vs BelbiţăPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
NM
MM
Maness vs MendonçaPreliminary Card · Flyweight
VD
KM
Demopoulos vs MurataPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
AQ
JJ
Qileng vs Muñoz Jr.Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
JA
MR
Aldrich vs RosaPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
GD
Green vs DawsonFight Card · Lightweight
JP
AA
Pyfer vs AlhassanFight Card · Middleweight
JB
AM
Buckley vs MoronoFight Card · Welterweight
DD
RG
Dober vs GlennFight Card · Lightweight
BA
AH
Algeo vs HernandezFight Card · Featherweight
KK
DB
Kowalkiewicz vs BelbiţăPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
NM
MM
Maness vs MendonçaPreliminary Card · Flyweight
VD
KM
Demopoulos vs MurataPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
AQ
JJ
Qileng vs Muñoz Jr.Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
JA
MR
Aldrich vs RosaPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Algeo v Hernandez
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Algeo 18-9
VS
18-8 Hernandez
6'0"
height
5'9"
146 lb
weight
155 lb
73"
reach
72"
37
age
33
Switch
stance
Orthodox
5.9
strikes landed / min
2.6
51%
striking accuracy
49%
4.4
strikes absorbed / min
4.1
47%
striking defence
64%
1.0
takedowns / 15 min
1.9
50%
takedown accuracy
52%
55%
takedown defence
58%
0.1
submissions / 15 min
1.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
LM
Leftlane MMA picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“I'll be picking Bill Alo in this fight”
Leftlane MMA picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“I'll be picking Bill Alo in this fight”
TM
The MMA Minute picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE
“overall I think Alexander Hernandez looked great in the scale and I think that's something to note as someone who usually gases out in the first round um so I think it might not be the case this time”
The MMA Minute picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE
“overall I think Alexander Hernandez looked great in the scale and I think that's something to note as someone who usually gases out in the first round um so I think it might not be the case this time”
OC
OFF THE EDGE WITH JAKE & CAM picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“I'm going with the Chiefs on this one to win this football game.”
OFF THE EDGE WITH JAKE & CAM picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“I'm going with the Chiefs on this one to win this football game.”
AO
Andrew Osantowski picks Bill Algeo
“I'm going to S with Alexander Hernandez”
Andrew Osantowski picks Bill Algeo
“I'm going to S with Alexander Hernandez”
BS
BTS - Behind the Sports picks Bill Algeo
“kicking off in the EVENT_DETAILS division Bill Algeo versus Alexander Alexander Hernandez”
BTS - Behind the Sports picks Bill Algeo
“kicking off in the EVENT_DETAILS division Bill Algeo versus Alexander Alexander Hernandez”
DG
Diary of a Pro Gambler picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“I lean towards alio in this fight and I'm very tempted to bet him”
Diary of a Pro Gambler picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“I lean towards alio in this fight and I'm very tempted to bet him”
TP
The City Life Project picks Bill Algeo
“I like Bill Algeo I like CIO Alex Moronoander Hernandez man tough as Nails very very good wrestler and super explosive early in the fights anyways plus 120 he's the underdog but it is close he's he's already 31 years old that's crazy man time flying um this one is being fought at is it is being fought at featherweight so Alex Morono Alex Moronoander Hernandez is fighting at featherweight again I mean man he's a pretty jacked up lightweight he's at a factory x 6 K TKO two submissions six decision six and five in the UFC one and0 LFA uh he beat Jim Miller in his last fight but he didn't dominate Jim Miller in his last fight and that's important now I'm giving a lot of credit to Jim Miller because Jim Miller is actually like actually still looks good at this stage in his career and Jim Miller is impossible to put out look Alex Moronoander Alex Moronoander Hernandez Alex Moronoander Hernandez wants to make a real run at this he's got to dominate those guys and maybe Jim Miller is just that good at his age that it's going to be tough for anyone to dominate him and I don't want to take that away from Jim Miller but Jim Miller didn't look bad in that fight didn't look bad lost Bill Algeoy cornello lost to money moano beat Mike Breeden lost to [Music] Moises beat old taldo he did beat Olivier merer but I think if I think if OEM fought him today he'd probably he'd probably beat him he'd probably beat him uh I think this is a good uh as far as like the matchmaking goes I think this is a good matchup for both of them um but I think Bill Algeo Bill Algeo Algeo is just he's he's unassumingly good and I'm GNA pick him to win”
$1.71
The City Life Project picks Bill Algeo
“I like Bill Algeo I like CIO Alex Moronoander Hernandez man tough as Nails very very good wrestler and super explosive early in the fights anyways plus 120 he's the underdog but it is close he's he's already 31 years old that's crazy man time flying um this one is being fought at is it is being fought at featherweight so Alex Morono Alex Moronoander Hernandez is fighting at featherweight again I mean man he's a pretty jacked up lightweight he's at a factory x 6 K TKO two submissions six decision six and five in the UFC one and0 LFA uh he beat Jim Miller in his last fight but he didn't dominate Jim Miller in his last fight and that's important now I'm giving a lot of credit to Jim Miller because Jim Miller is actually like actually still looks good at this stage in his career and Jim Miller is impossible to put out look Alex Moronoander Alex Moronoander Hernandez Alex Moronoander Hernandez wants to make a real run at this he's got to dominate those guys and maybe Jim Miller is just that good at his age that it's going to be tough for anyone to dominate him and I don't want to take that away from Jim Miller but Jim Miller didn't look bad in that fight didn't look bad lost Bill Algeoy cornello lost to money moano beat Mike Breeden lost to [Music] Moises beat old taldo he did beat Olivier merer but I think if I think if OEM fought him today he'd probably he'd probably beat him he'd probably beat him uh I think this is a good uh as far as like the matchmaking goes I think this is a good matchup for both of them um but I think Bill Algeo Bill Algeo Algeo is just he's he's unassumingly good and I'm GNA pick him to win”
$1.71
PP
Pure Picks picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“I have uh Bill Algeogeo also as a better odds”
Pure Picks picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“I have uh Bill Algeogeo also as a better odds”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Algeo18-9
L
Doo-ho
Jul '24
L
Nelson
Mar '24
W
Hernandez
Oct '23
W
Brown
Apr '23
L
Fili
Sep '22
Hernandez18-8
L
García
Apr '26
W
Ferreira
Sep '25
W
Hooper
Aug '25
W
Holobaugh
Mar '25
W
Hubbard
Oct '24