MMA Prophecy
🌐BEST
UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas
Choose a fight to analyse
RN AR Namajunas vs RibasMain Card · Women'S Flyweight KW JT Williams vs TafaMain Card · Heavyweight ES AD Shahbazyan vs DobsonMain Card · Middleweight PT CS Talbott vs SaaimanMain Card · Bantamweight YZ BQ Zalal vs QuarantilloMain Card · Featherweight FP LP Padilla vs PajueloMain Card · Featherweight TO KH Ogden vs HolobaughPreliminary Card · Lightweight JE RR Erosa vs RamosPreliminary Card · Featherweight MJ CG Johns vs GibsonPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JE SN Errens vs NguyenPreliminary Card · Featherweight DZ MR Zheleznyakova vs RendonPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight AL IS Lima vs SeverinoPreliminary Card · Flyweight MP MU Parkin vs UsmanPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Ogden v Holobaugh Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Consensus39 picks · conf 61/99
Ogden 22
17 Holobaugh
CPFSTS pick Ogden
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Ogden 18-7 VS 22-10 Holobaugh
5'11" height 5'11"
155 lb weight 156 lb
72" reach 70"
36 age 39
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.1 strikes landed / min 4.6
48% striking accuracy 45%
3.5 strikes absorbed / min 4.3
57% striking defence 47%
2.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.8
30% takedown accuracy 33%
100% takedown defence 42%
0.8 submissions / 15 min 0.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Trey Ogden VALUE “Trey Ogden with a finish on Trey Ogden”
MP MMA Prophecy picks Kurt Holobaugh VALUE “I'm confident he should get it done”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Kurt Holobaugh “I went with Kurt Hollard”
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Trey Ogden “I'm going to pick try Trey Ogden Ogden to win”
MM MMAWeekly.com picks Trey Ogden “our featured prelim is in the lightweight division Trey Ogden takes on Kurt Holo”
HB Home of Bets picks Trey Ogden VALUE “I think Trey probably has the better skills at this point to get it done” $1.67
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Trey Ogden VALUE “I'm definitely taking [Trey Ogden]”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Kurt Holobaugh VALUE “I actually think halah should be favored here”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Kurt Holobaugh VALUE “I'm going with K Hollow about to beat Trey Trey Ogden”
WP We Want Picks picks Trey Ogden VALUE “I am on the try Ogden side”
RA Ringside Report Network - Combat Sports Authority picks Trey Ogden “taking on Trey Ogden”
RA Ringside Report Network - Combat Sports Authority picks Kurt Holobaugh VALUE “I like Kurt Holobaugh plus one30 as an underdog”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Ogden18-7
L Moisés Decision · R3 Jan '25
W Radzhabov Decision · R3 Jul '24
W Holobaugh Decision · R3 Mar '24
L Bahamondes Decision · R3 Apr '23
W Zellhuber Decision · R3 Sep '22
Holobaugh22-10
L Leavitt Submission · R1 May '25
L Hernandez Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Kruschewsky Decision · R3 Jul '24
L Ogden Decision · R3 Mar '24
W Hubbard Submission · R2 Aug '23