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Sabatini vs BritoMain Card · Featherweight
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Chang-ho vs RomiousMain Card · Catchweight
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Tavares vs MeerschaertMain Card · Middleweight
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Osbourne vs GuruleMain Card · Flyweight
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Finney vs ValentinMain Card · Middleweight
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Barbosa vs BelbiţăPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Murphy v Emmett
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Murphy 17-0-1
VS
19-6 Emmett
5'9"
height
5'6"
146 lb
weight
146 lb
73"
reach
70"
34
age
41
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.8
strikes landed / min
5.9
54%
striking accuracy
58%
2.7
strikes absorbed / min
4.4
60%
striking defence
49%
1.8
takedowns / 15 min
2.5
54%
takedown accuracy
63%
48%
takedown defence
58%
0.6
submissions / 15 min
0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
GP
Greedo Plays picks Josh Emmett
“Go make sure to check out our UFC fight Josh Emmett versus Lerone Murphy predictions.”
Greedo Plays picks Josh Emmett
“Go make sure to check out our UFC fight Josh Emmett versus Lerone Murphy predictions.”
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“One pop and your drop as well from Emma is also a factor.”
The Rambling Dad picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“One pop and your drop as well from Emma is also a factor.”
GM
GLO MMA picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“I'm just going Lerone Murphy to go ahead and get a decision.”
GLO MMA picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“I'm just going Lerone Murphy to go ahead and get a decision.”
TS
The Open Mat Show picks Josh Emmett
The Open Mat Show picks Josh Emmett
ES
etoft21 sports picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“If Lerone Murphy can just manage the range and avoid Emit's power shots, he should be able to outstrike him over three rounds.”
etoft21 sports picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“If Lerone Murphy can just manage the range and avoid Emit's power shots, he should be able to outstrike him over three rounds.”
GM
GC MMA picks Josh Emmett
“I'm going Josh Emmett.”
GC MMA picks Josh Emmett
“I'm going Josh Emmett.”
GI
GipperPicks picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“I've got a huge lean on on Lerone Murphy winning.”
GipperPicks picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“I've got a huge lean on on Lerone Murphy winning.”
FM
FATALITY MMA picks Lerone Murphy
“I'm taking Lerone Lerone Murphy.”
FATALITY MMA picks Lerone Murphy
“I'm taking Lerone Lerone Murphy.”
NM
Nocaut mma picks Lerone Murphy
“el main event Josh Emmett contra Lerone Lerone Murphy”
Nocaut mma picks Lerone Murphy
“el main event Josh Emmett contra Lerone Lerone Murphy”
WS
We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Josh Emmett VALUE
“Last bet of the night so far, Josh Emmett plus 259. Two units to win 5.18. This is one where I kind of go against my metrics a little even though the metrics still show slight value but two units I like it because I do think that the rest and time off is going to help Josh Emmett especially at this age and I do think he's going to come out and surprise some people and that is just way too high of a line for Josh Emmett.”
$3.59
We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Josh Emmett VALUE
“Last bet of the night so far, Josh Emmett plus 259. Two units to win 5.18. This is one where I kind of go against my metrics a little even though the metrics still show slight value but two units I like it because I do think that the rest and time off is going to help Josh Emmett especially at this age and I do think he's going to come out and surprise some people and that is just way too high of a line for Josh Emmett.”
$3.59
WS
We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Josh Emmett VALUE
“I like Josh Emmett here at plus 260.”
$3.60
We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Josh Emmett VALUE
“I like Josh Emmett here at plus 260.”
$3.60
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Murphy17-0-1
L
Evloev
Mar '26
W
Pico
Aug '25
W
Emmett
Apr '25
W
Ige
Oct '24
W
Barboza
May '24
Emmett19-6
L
Vallejos
Mar '26
L
Zalal
Oct '25
L
Murphy
Apr '25
W
Mitchell
Dec '23
L
Topuria
Jun '23