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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Rodriguez v Ponzinibbio Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus71 picks · conf 76/99
Rodriguez 35
36 Ponzinibbio
THBMKW pick Rodriguez
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Rodriguez 18-5 VS 30-8 Ponzinibbio
6'1" height 6'0"
170 lb weight 170 lb
74" reach 73"
39 age 39
Southpaw stance Orthodox
7.5 strikes landed / min 4.7
49% striking accuracy 41%
5.5 strikes absorbed / min 4.5
58% striking defence 61%
0.6 takedowns / 15 min 0.6
54% takedown accuracy 32%
57% takedown defence 66%
0.1 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE $2.00
VI VinceMMA picks Santiago Ponzinibbio VALUE “I'm going Santiago Panzanibio by decision”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE “I'm gonna go with Daniel Rodriguez.” $2.00
CM Coty MMA picks Santiago Ponzinibbio VALUE “Give me Santiago Pontinibio plus 105.” $2.05
CZ Czaleo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio “I went with Santiago Ponzinibbio. ... I'm going to say Santiago Ponzinibbio catches him with something”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Santiago Ponzinibbio VALUE “yo digo que paga muy bien y lo veo favorito en este duelo porque Daniel Rodríguez en las últimas peleas ha dejado que desear” $1.87
GA GABODDS picks Daniel Rodriguez “Yo yo me iría por Pon Nivio”
KM KZ MMA picks Daniel Rodriguez “I like Ponzibio to get this done.”
WW Wages & Warriors picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE “I'm going to lean on Daniel Daniel Rodriguez to win this fight and that's at plus 110 and I'm gonna take that all the way to the bank.” $2.10
RP Rparqs picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE “Daniel Rodriguez's going to be the pick here, the bed here, man.”
UB UFC Brasil picks Daniel Rodriguez “Next we move to the welterweight division. Daniel Rodriguez squares off against Santiago Ponzinibbio”
GP Ground"N"Pound Podcast picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE “And next up for our moneyline players, we've got Daniel Rodriguez. And this is really just a play on the fact that I think Daniel Rodriguez out of the two is the less washed... So, give me him plus 100 as one of our uh best bets here on the money line.” $2.00
Recent form last five, most recent first
Rodriguez18-5
W Holland Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Ponzinibbio KO/TKO · R3 May '25
W Morono Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Gastelum Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Garry KO/TKO · R1 May '23
Ponzinibbio30-8
L Rodriguez KO/TKO · R3 May '25
W Harris KO/TKO · R3 Jan '25
L Salikhov Decision · R3 Jul '24
L Holland KO/TKO · R3 Apr '23
W Morono KO/TKO · R3 Dec '22