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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Chiesa v McGee Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus130 picks · conf 99/99
Chiesa 95
35 McGee
bBPSMC pick Chiesa
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Chiesa 19-7 VS 23-13 McGee
6'1" height 5'11"
171 lb weight 170 lb
76" reach 75"
38 age 41
Southpaw stance Orthodox
1.9 strikes landed / min 4.6
40% striking accuracy 37%
1.7 strikes absorbed / min 3.6
53% striking defence 61%
3.4 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
51% takedown accuracy 25%
60% takedown defence 69%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.5
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Michael Chiesa “I think Michael Chiesa is probably just a little bit better uh everywhere.”
KP Kick Em In The Head MMA Podcast picks Michael Chiesa “give me Michael Michael Chiesa” $1.28
TS The Fight Week Show picks Michael Chiesa VALUE “give me Michael Chiesa” $3.15
TD The Rambling Dad picks Michael Chiesa “I'm going with Michael Chiesa” $1.28
VI VinceMMA picks Michael Chiesa VALUE “I'm going to go Michael Chiesa by round three submission.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Michael Chiesa VALUE “I'm picking Michael Chiesa by unfortunately I think it's going to be by decision.” $2.05
US Uselyis picks Michael Chiesa “I'm taking Michael Chiesa moneyline at a minus 355.” $1.28
GI GipperPicks picks Michael Chiesa “Chiaza will definitely be the better wrestler and the better grappler.”
XL xLimOnC picks Court McGee “creo que ganará Shiza”
MM MMAnomaly picks Court McGee VALUE “I like Court McGee in this fight.”
UW Uncle Weezy picks Michael Chiesa “I like Jaime Lynn Horth to win this one by decision” $1.48
FF Fights & Frags picks Michael Chiesa “I'm going to obviously go with Michael Chiesa at minus 345 uh favorite.” $1.29
Recent form last five, most recent first
Chiesa19-7
W Price Submission · R1 Mar '26
W McGee Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Griffin Submission · R3 Dec '24
W Ferguson Submission · R1 Aug '24
L Holland Submission · R1 Jul '23
McGee23-13
L Chiesa Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Means Submission · R1 Oct '24
L Morono Decision · R3 Apr '24
L Brown KO/TKO · R1 May '23
L Wells KO/TKO · R1 Jun '22