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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Morales v Burns Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus95 picks · conf 83/99
Morales 67
28 Burns
JCRHCF pick Morales
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Morales 18-0 VS 22-9 Burns
6'0" height 5'10"
170 lb weight 170 lb
79" reach 71"
27 age 39
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.4 strikes landed / min 3.2
48% striking accuracy 48%
3.4 strikes absorbed / min 3.6
52% striking defence 52%
1.2 takedowns / 15 min 2.1
41% takedown accuracy 37%
92% takedown defence 53%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.5
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
HB Half The Battle picks Michael Morales “we'll go Michael Morales as well.”
TP The Darce Podcast picks Gilbert Burns VALUE $7.00
VI VinceMMA picks Michael Morales VALUE “I'm going to go Michael Morales by unanimous decision.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Gilbert Burns “Gilbert Burns by decision.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Michael Morales “I am taking Michael Morales”
MR MMA ROACH picks Michael Morales “I'm going to take Michael Michael Morales.”
RA RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Michael Morales VALUE “Uh Michael Morales Conforto dirt cheap.”
SL SUPER LUTAS picks Michael Morales VALUE “meu palpite aqui é sim pra vitória do do Michael Mor”
JN JNapsMMAshorts picks Michael Morales “Michael Morales getting the dub.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Michael Morales “The pick is Michael Morales, guys.”
P® Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Michael Morales VALUE “Michael Michael Morales, he's just going to use the offensive wrestling on Gilbert against him. He's going to tire out.”
ST Stephen Wonderboy Thompson picks Michael Morales “I think if Morales can take some notes out of JDM's book, I think he can win this fight.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Morales18-0
W Brady KO/TKO · R1 Nov '25
W Burns KO/TKO · R1 May '25
W Magny KO/TKO · R1 Aug '24
W Matthews Decision · R3 Nov '23
W Griffin Decision · R3 Jul '23
Burns22-9
L Malott KO/TKO · R3 Apr '26
L Morales KO/TKO · R1 May '25
L Brady Decision · R5 Sep '24
L Maddalena KO/TKO · R3 Mar '24
L Muhammad Decision · R5 May '23