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UFC Freedom 250
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Lopes v Garcia Featherweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus92 picks · conf 82/99
Lopes 55
37 Garcia
TEFMMA pick Lopes
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Lopes 27-8 VS 19-5 Garcia
5'11" height 6'0"
146 lb weight 145 lb
72" reach 75"
31 age 34
Orthodox stance Southpaw
3.5 strikes landed / min 5.0
58% striking accuracy 56%
2.2 strikes absorbed / min 2.3
56% striking defence 46%
1.0 takedowns / 15 min 1.2
39% takedown accuracy 40%
52% takedown defence 88%
1.2 submissions / 15 min 0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MM MMA Mikey picks Diego Lopes “I'm gonna pick Diego Lopes to win this fight via submission.” $1.74
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Diego Lopes “I like Diego Lopes here.”
FI FightBookMMA picks Steve Garcia “I got Steve Garcia, bro. I'm thinking Steve Garcia pulls off a upset and knocks this fool out.”
HN Hidden Source News picks Steve Garcia “my pick will be Steve Garcia.”
MM Minted MMA picks Steve Garcia “Yeah, I'm going to choose Steve Garcia.”
MM Mind Of Moseefus picks Diego Lopes “I'm going to give it to Diego Lopes. I think Diego Lopes bounces back from the loss of NOT_IN_ROSTER_3 and he pulls this off.”
UF UFCharlesDoBronx picks Steve Garcia “I am a little bit biased towards him, but I swear to God, all bias aside, I still think he wins this fight.”
FL Flips.Corner picks Diego Lopes “I think I got Diego Lopes winning this fight.”
MW MMA Fight Picks - Aaron Weinbaum picks Diego Lopes “I'm going to go with the favorite here if I can write that down. Diego Lopes.”
KU Kunath picks Steve Garcia “I like Bo Nickal and I like Steve Garcia. So, he's really my only dog that I like out of these seven is Steve Garcia.”
T™ TheWagerZone ™ picks Steve Garcia “I'm going to be picking Steve Garcia.”
SS Sports Gambling Podcast - SGPN picks Steve Garcia VALUE “I'll take Steve Garcia.” $2.20
Recent form last five, most recent first
Lopes27-8
W Garcia KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
L Volkanovski Decision · R5 Feb '26
W Silva KO/TKO · R2 Sep '25
L Volkanovski Decision · R5 Apr '25
W Ortega Decision · R3 Sep '24
Garcia19-5
L Lopes KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
W Onama KO/TKO · R1 Nov '25
W Kattar Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Nelson KO/TKO · R1 Sep '24
W Seung-woo KO/TKO · R1 Jul '24