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UFC Freedom 250
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Topuria v Gaethje Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus105 picks · conf 87/99
Topuria 90
15 Gaethje
UMMFMM pick Topuria
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Topuria 17-0 VS 27-5 Gaethje
5'7" height 5'11"
155 lb weight 155 lb
69" reach 70"
29 age 37
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.5 strikes landed / min 7.4
54% striking accuracy 57%
2.3 strikes absorbed / min 5.8
61% striking defence 54%
2.3 takedowns / 15 min 0.7
57% takedown accuracy 34%
84% takedown defence 68%
1.3 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MM MMA Mikey picks Ilia Topuria “I got Ilia Topuria to win this fight very safely and he's going to destroy Justin Gaethje.” $1.23
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Ilia Topuria “I need Ilia Topuria to win in under two”
FI FightBookMMA picks Justin Gaethje “I'm gonna go with Justin Gaethje, bro.”
FI FightBookMMA picks Ilia Topuria “El Matador my friend. I got him winning. I'm going to say he's going to knock his ass out in round four.”
HN Hidden Source News picks Ilia Topuria “My pick will be Ilia Topuria.”
MM Minted MMA picks Ilia Topuria “I'm going to have to go with Ilia Topuria Ilia Topuria defeating Justin Gaethje in round one.”
MM Mind Of Moseefus picks Ilia Topuria “I see Ilia Topuria winning that fight pretty easily. Probably another first round knockout.”
UF UFCharlesDoBronx picks Ilia Topuria “give me Ilia Topuria by first or second round knockout.”
FL Flips.Corner picks Ilia Topuria “my head is saying Ilia Topuria”
MW MMA Fight Picks - Aaron Weinbaum picks Ilia Topuria “No. I'm sorry, Justin Gaethje. You're a real American, buddy. But I am going with Ilia Topuria Tapuria.”
KU Kunath picks Ilia Topuria “I do like Ilia Topuria to get the fight to the ground, win by submission, do the damn thing”
T™ TheWagerZone ™ picks Ilia Topuria “This guy's went by knockout in the first or second round. Ilia Topuria by knockout.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Topuria17-0
L Gaethje KO/TKO · R4 Jun '26
W Oliveira KO/TKO · R1 Jun '25
W Holloway KO/TKO · R3 Oct '24
W Volkanovski KO/TKO · R2 Feb '24
W Emmett Decision · R5 Jun '23
Gaethje27-5
W Topuria KO/TKO · R4 Jun '26
W Pimblett Decision · R5 Jan '26
W Fiziev Decision · R3 Mar '25
L Holloway KO/TKO · R5 Apr '24
W Poirier KO/TKO · R2 Jul '23