Choose a fight to analyse
AS
YZ
Sterling vs ZalalMain Card · Featherweight
RG
AH
García vs HernandezMain Card · Lightweight
MJ
RB
Jackson vs BarcelosMain Card · Bantamweight
ND
JE
Dumont vs EdwardsMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight
MB
RS
Buchecha vs SpannMain Card · Heavyweight
TA
JP
Alencar vs PolastriPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
RV
EM
Vieira vs McConicoPreliminary Card · Middleweight
MS
MM
Silva vs MontaguePreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
JM
SD
McVey vs DumasPreliminary Card · Middleweight
DG
AM
Grant vs MartinettiMain Card · Bantamweight
JF
CD
Filho vs DurdenPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
FM
LB
Marshall vs BrennanPreliminary Card · Lightweight
MG
VV
Griffin vs ValenzuelaPreliminary Card · Welterweight
YZ
Sterling vs ZalalMain Card · Featherweight
RG
AH
García vs HernandezMain Card · Lightweight
MJ
RB
Jackson vs BarcelosMain Card · Bantamweight
ND
JE
Dumont vs EdwardsMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight
MB
RS
Buchecha vs SpannMain Card · Heavyweight
TA
JP
Alencar vs PolastriPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
RV
EM
Vieira vs McConicoPreliminary Card · Middleweight
MS
MM
Silva vs MontaguePreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
JM
SD
McVey vs DumasPreliminary Card · Middleweight
DG
AM
Grant vs MartinettiMain Card · Bantamweight
JF
CD
Filho vs DurdenPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
FM
LB
Marshall vs BrennanPreliminary Card · Lightweight
MG
VV
Griffin vs ValenzuelaPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
García v Hernandez
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
García 11-6-1
VS
18-8 Hernandez
6'1"
height
5'9"
154 lb
weight
155 lb
76"
reach
72"
—
age
33
Switch
stance
Orthodox
4.2
strikes landed / min
2.6
51%
striking accuracy
49%
4.8
strikes absorbed / min
4.1
65%
striking defence
64%
1.3
takedowns / 15 min
1.9
33%
takedown accuracy
52%
82%
takedown defence
58%
1.4
submissions / 15 min
1.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
Working Fans Podcast picks Alexander Hernandez
“I think the TKO streak continues. I think both guys are going to engage. So, I'll pick Alexander Hernandez by round two TKO.”
Working Fans Podcast picks Alexander Hernandez
“I think the TKO streak continues. I think both guys are going to engage. So, I'll pick Alexander Hernandez by round two TKO.”
CA
CageSideConnor picks Alexander Hernandez
“I'm picking Alexander Hernandez.”
CageSideConnor picks Alexander Hernandez
“I'm picking Alexander Hernandez.”
MD
MMA DUMMY picks Alexander Hernandez
“We're taking [ __ ] Alexander Alexander Hernandez.”
MMA DUMMY picks Alexander Hernandez
“We're taking [ __ ] Alexander Alexander Hernandez.”
SP
SportsLine picks Rafa García
“I think it's a good win for Rafa García, but I'm putting an asterisk next to it and I'm backing this fight, I believe.”
SportsLine picks Rafa García
“I think it's a good win for Rafa García, but I'm putting an asterisk next to it and I'm backing this fight, I believe.”
FF
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE
“I went with Alexander Hernandez...moneyline bet for me”
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE
“I went with Alexander Hernandez...moneyline bet for me”
CM
CornerTalk MMA picks Alexander Hernandez
“So on Alexander Hernandez a different fight.”
CornerTalk MMA picks Alexander Hernandez
“So on Alexander Hernandez a different fight.”
LE
LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Rafa García
“might find a way to win this fight by decision. Rafa García this fight by decision. Rafa García this fight by decision.”
LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Rafa García
“might find a way to win this fight by decision. Rafa García this fight by decision. Rafa García this fight by decision.”
BM
Bruce Oldham MMA picks Alexander Hernandez
“Alexander Hernandez has been looking really, Alexander Hernandez is just better. that uh Alexander Hernandez has been with Alexander Hernandez to win. I think”
Bruce Oldham MMA picks Alexander Hernandez
“Alexander Hernandez has been looking really, Alexander Hernandez is just better. that uh Alexander Hernandez has been with Alexander Hernandez to win. I think”
TP
The Surprise Jab Podcast picks Alexander Hernandez
“going with Alexander Hernandez here”
The Surprise Jab Podcast picks Alexander Hernandez
“going with Alexander Hernandez here”
SS
Silly Gilly Goose MMA Show picks Rafa García
“I'm going to go Rafa García here.”
Silly Gilly Goose MMA Show picks Rafa García
“I'm going to go Rafa García here.”
TC
The Finz Chats picks Rafa García
“fight we got to wager on is Rafa García knocking out Rafa García. ... if someone's getting knocked out, Rafa García's”
The Finz Chats picks Rafa García
“fight we got to wager on is Rafa García knocking out Rafa García. ... if someone's getting knocked out, Rafa García's”
SL
Summit Valley Sports LLC picks Rafa García
“give me Rafa García. I think his against Rafa García, who's no joke. Um, yeah, give me Rafa García. I like I I rate Rafa García very highly with his boxing Rafa García for the upset. Grant, Rafa García, Norma Dumont, and Banger of the week has to be Rafa García in this fight.”
Summit Valley Sports LLC picks Rafa García
“give me Rafa García. I think his against Rafa García, who's no joke. Um, yeah, give me Rafa García. I like I I rate Rafa García very highly with his boxing Rafa García for the upset. Grant, Rafa García, Norma Dumont, and Banger of the week has to be Rafa García in this fight.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
García11-6-1
W
Hernandez
Apr '26
W
Gordon
Sep '25
W
Pichel
Mar '25
L
Dawson
Oct '24
W
Guida
Apr '23
Hernandez18-8
L
García
Apr '26
W
Ferreira
Sep '25
W
Hooper
Aug '25
W
Holobaugh
Mar '25
W
Hubbard
Oct '24