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Nascimento vs DurdenMain Card · Catchweight
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Garcia vs OnamaMain Card · Featherweight
WC
AD
Cortes-Acosta vs DelijaMain Card · Heavyweight
JW
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Wells vs GorimboMain Card · Welterweight
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Nascimento vs DurdenMain Card · Catchweight
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Prophecy read
Nascimento v Durden
Catchweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus3 picks · conf 10/99
pick Nascimento
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Nascimento 22-7
VS
17-10-1 Durden
5'8"
height
5'7"
126 lb
weight
125 lb
70"
reach
67"
34
age
35
Orthodox
stance
Southpaw
5.1
strikes landed / min
3.4
37%
striking accuracy
50%
4.2
strikes absorbed / min
3.3
57%
striking defence
50%
2.0
takedowns / 15 min
4.4
42%
takedown accuracy
50%
75%
takedown defence
73%
0.5
submissions / 15 min
0.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
SG
Savant of the Fight Game picks Cody Durden
“I'm going to go with the sturdy vet, Cody Durden.”
Savant of the Fight Game picks Cody Durden
“I'm going to go with the sturdy vet, Cody Durden.”
MM
MMAPlay365 picks Cody Durden
“stylistically, I think Cody Durden is the better striker here... has got the better wrestling as well. So, I think that Cody Durden could have some success”
MMAPlay365 picks Cody Durden
“stylistically, I think Cody Durden is the better striker here... has got the better wrestling as well. So, I think that Cody Durden could have some success”
BE
BennyPMMA picks Cody Durden
“Cody Cody Durden could just beat him on the sub Cody Durden at some point in this”
BennyPMMA picks Cody Durden
“Cody Cody Durden could just beat him on the sub Cody Durden at some point in this”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Nascimento22-7
L
Raposo
Jun '26
W
Durden
Nov '25
W
Filho
May '25
W
Hernández
Jan '23
W
Hadley
May '22
Durden17-10-1
W
Filho
Apr '26
L
Tumendemberel
Mar '26
L
Nascimento
Nov '25
L
Ochoa
Jun '25
L
Van
Dec '24