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Oki vs JonesMain Card · Lightweight
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Bannon vs HughesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Denis vs RuffyMain Card · Lightweight
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Bukauskas vs CraigMain Card · Light Heavyweight
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Sy vs RibeiroPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
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Gomis vs RuchałaMain Card · Featherweight
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Patterson vs WatersPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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Hardwick vs FernandesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Hardwick v Fernandes
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Hardwick 13-4-1
VS
11-2 Fernandes
5'10"
height
5'9"
156 lb
weight
155 lb
71"
reach
73"
31
age
31
Switch
stance
Orthodox
3.8
strikes landed / min
2.8
38%
striking accuracy
64%
2.3
strikes absorbed / min
4.9
64%
striking defence
57%
1.6
takedowns / 15 min
2.8
74%
takedown accuracy
45%
60%
takedown defence
58%
0.7
submissions / 15 min
0.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MC
MMA MEDIA CLIPS picks Harry Hardwick
“It's tough tough debut, but it is what it is. You know, he's in the UFC. Thank you for the sixuros.”
MMA MEDIA CLIPS picks Harry Hardwick
“It's tough tough debut, but it is what it is. You know, he's in the UFC. Thank you for the sixuros.”
FC
Fighters’ Chronicles picks Harry Hardwick
“Prediction: Harry Hardwick. His composure and technical striking offer a clearer path to victory.”
Fighters’ Chronicles picks Harry Hardwick
“Prediction: Harry Hardwick. His composure and technical striking offer a clearer path to victory.”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Harry Hardwick VALUE
“give me Fernandez. Fernandez by decision in this one.”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Harry Hardwick VALUE
“give me Fernandez. Fernandez by decision in this one.”
TS
The Ariel Helwani Show picks Harry Hardwick VALUE
“No specific quote, but implied in analysis”
The Ariel Helwani Show picks Harry Hardwick VALUE
“No specific quote, but implied in analysis”
MM
MMAnomaly picks Harry Hardwick VALUE
“I like Harry Hardwick in this one.”
MMAnomaly picks Harry Hardwick VALUE
“I like Harry Hardwick in this one.”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Harry Hardwick VALUE
“I'm not going to do that. Not even on short notice... I'm siding with the Englishman.”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Harry Hardwick VALUE
“I'm not going to do that. Not even on short notice... I'm siding with the Englishman.”
SN
SnorkelMMA picks Harry Hardwick
“So now Harry Hardwick is stepped in on short notice. Hardwick is actually a different level right now.”
SnorkelMMA picks Harry Hardwick
“So now Harry Hardwick is stepped in on short notice. Hardwick is actually a different level right now.”
MN
Mayo Media Network picks Harry Hardwick VALUE
“I'm going with Bowskis.”
Mayo Media Network picks Harry Hardwick VALUE
“I'm going with Bowskis.”
DO
DonDaDa02 picks Harry Hardwick
“taking Harry Hardwick to win.”
DonDaDa02 picks Harry Hardwick
“taking Harry Hardwick to win.”
ST
StaceymanMMA picks Harry Hardwick VALUE
“Now, Harry Hardwick has stepped in uh I think on 5 days notice. Um personally to me, the reason I'm picking Harry is because I don't think Kauê Fernandes here has actually faced any UFC quality opponents yet.”
StaceymanMMA picks Harry Hardwick VALUE
“Now, Harry Hardwick has stepped in uh I think on 5 days notice. Um personally to me, the reason I'm picking Harry is because I don't think Kauê Fernandes here has actually faced any UFC quality opponents yet.”
CO
CozyBoyzMMA picks Harry Hardwick VALUE
“I have Harry Harry Hardwick winning this fight.”
CozyBoyzMMA picks Harry Hardwick VALUE
“I have Harry Harry Hardwick winning this fight.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Hardwick13-4-1
L
Rahiki
Mar '26
L
Fernandes
Sep '25
Fernandes11-2
W
Hardwick
Sep '25
W
Kutateladze
Mar '25
W
Yahya
Aug '24
L
Diakiese
Nov '23