Choose a fight to analyse
NI
CB
Imavov vs BorralhoMain Card · Middleweight
AG
RF
Gustafsson vs FakhretdinovPreliminary Card · Welterweight
MT
AD
Tybura vs DelijaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BO
MJ
Oki vs JonesMain Card · Lightweight
SB
SH
Bannon vs HughesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BD
MR
Denis vs RuffyMain Card · Lightweight
MB
PC
Bukauskas vs CraigMain Card · Light Heavyweight
OS
BR
Sy vs RibeiroPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
WG
RR
Gomis vs RuchałaMain Card · Featherweight
SP
TW
Patterson vs WatersPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BT
RB
Tavares vs BryczekPreliminary Card · Middleweight
RM
AS
McKee vs SolaMain Card · Welterweight
HH
KF
Hardwick vs FernandesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
CB
Imavov vs BorralhoMain Card · Middleweight
AG
RF
Gustafsson vs FakhretdinovPreliminary Card · Welterweight
MT
AD
Tybura vs DelijaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BO
MJ
Oki vs JonesMain Card · Lightweight
SB
SH
Bannon vs HughesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BD
MR
Denis vs RuffyMain Card · Lightweight
MB
PC
Bukauskas vs CraigMain Card · Light Heavyweight
OS
BR
Sy vs RibeiroPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
WG
RR
Gomis vs RuchałaMain Card · Featherweight
SP
TW
Patterson vs WatersPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BT
RB
Tavares vs BryczekPreliminary Card · Middleweight
RM
AS
McKee vs SolaMain Card · Welterweight
HH
KF
Hardwick vs FernandesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Patterson v Waters
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Patterson 14-2-1
VS
9-2 Waters
6'3"
height
6'5"
170 lb
weight
171 lb
78"
reach
77"
30
age
31
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
5.1
strikes landed / min
2.6
57%
striking accuracy
42%
2.1
strikes absorbed / min
4.2
57%
striking defence
52%
1.3
takedowns / 15 min
1.9
31%
takedown accuracy
67%
71%
takedown defence
84%
1.9
submissions / 15 min
1.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
We Want Picks picks Trey Waters VALUE
“I think Trey Waters wins this fight. I'm picking him to win.”
FC
Fighters’ Chronicles picks Trey Waters
“Prediction: Trey Waters. His finishing instincts give him an edge in this evenly matched encounter.”
VM
Verbal Sparring MMA picks Trey Waters
“taking on Trey Waters who has a 9-1 professional record.”
VM
Verbal Sparring MMA picks Sam Patterson
“and the future Sam Patterson is back on this card in Europe.”
IM
Il casual delle MMA picks Sam Patterson
“Unë mendoj se ai do të jetë në gjendje ta marrë në shtëpi fitore.”
MP
MMA Gems Podcast picks Trey Waters VALUE
“I'm going to lean Trey Waters here.”
DC
Dougies Corner picks Sam Patterson
“Sam Patterson is going to knock out bloody Trey Waters, mate.”
SS
Spinnin Backfist MMA Show picks Sam Patterson VALUE
“This is I think this is an awesome fight. Sneaky like Yeah, sneaky. Two prospects that I think a lot of people don't know a lot about that I think both have a lot of potential. Plus 19. I I think they're both like interesting puzzles to solve.”
$1.54
BM
Bruce Oldham MMA picks Sam Patterson
“So, I'm going to go with Sam Patterson.”
BG
BlomboMMA and Gaming picks Sam Patterson
“I'm leaning Sam Patterson and I'm gonna go with Sam Patterson.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Patterson14-2-1
L
Page
Mar '26
W
Waters
Sep '25
W
Barlow
Mar '25
W
Crosbie
Jul '24
W
Lainesse
Jan '24
Waters9-2
L
Patterson
Sep '25
W
Goff
May '24
W
Quinlan
Apr '23