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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Patterson v Waters Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus132 picks · conf 99/99
Patterson 107
25 Waters
TILIAL pick Patterson
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Patterson 14-2-1 VS 9-2 Waters
6'3" height 6'5"
170 lb weight 171 lb
78" reach 77"
30 age 31
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.1 strikes landed / min 2.6
57% striking accuracy 42%
2.1 strikes absorbed / min 4.2
57% striking defence 52%
1.3 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
31% takedown accuracy 67%
71% takedown defence 84%
1.9 submissions / 15 min 1.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Sam Patterson VALUE $1.52
WP We Want Picks picks Trey Waters VALUE “I think Trey Waters wins this fight. I'm picking him to win.”
FC Fighters’ Chronicles picks Trey Waters “Prediction: Trey Waters. His finishing instincts give him an edge in this evenly matched encounter.”
VM Verbal Sparring MMA picks Trey Waters “taking on Trey Waters who has a 9-1 professional record.”
VM Verbal Sparring MMA picks Sam Patterson “and the future Sam Patterson is back on this card in Europe.”
IM Il casual delle MMA picks Sam Patterson “Unë mendoj se ai do të jetë në gjendje ta marrë në shtëpi fitore.”
MP MMA Gems Podcast picks Trey Waters VALUE “I'm going to lean Trey Waters here.”
DC Dougies Corner picks Sam Patterson “Sam Patterson is going to knock out bloody Trey Waters, mate.”
SS Spinnin Backfist MMA Show picks Sam Patterson VALUE “This is I think this is an awesome fight. Sneaky like Yeah, sneaky. Two prospects that I think a lot of people don't know a lot about that I think both have a lot of potential. Plus 19. I I think they're both like interesting puzzles to solve.” $1.54
IZ Izzysdegenmind picks Sam Patterson “Give me Sam Patterson to win by submission” $1.52
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Sam Patterson “So, I'm going to go with Sam Patterson.”
BG BlomboMMA and Gaming picks Sam Patterson “I'm leaning Sam Patterson and I'm gonna go with Sam Patterson.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Patterson14-2-1
L Page Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Waters KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
W Barlow KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
W Crosbie Submission · R1 Jul '24
W Lainesse Submission · R1 Jan '24
Waters9-2
L Patterson KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
W Goff Decision · R3 May '24
W Quinlan Decision · R3 Apr '23