Choose a fight to analyse
KR
NC
Rosa vs CornolleMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight
NK
AP
Klein vs PulyaevPreliminary Card · Middleweight
RV
TG
Vieira vs GorePreliminary Card · Catchweight
RN
NF
Nakamura vs FletcherPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
MR
CD
Rębecki vs DuncanMain Card · Lightweight
EB
ER
Brener vs RibovicsMain Card · Lightweight
NM
ES
Magny vs SantosMain Card · Welterweight
DS
KV
Silva vs VallejosMain Card · Featherweight
TT
PH
Taira vs Hyun-sungMain Card · Flyweight
AB
JY
Bashi vs YannisPreliminary Card · Featherweight
RE
FB
Estevam vs BunesPreliminary Card · Catchweight
PR
KS
Rodríguez vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
NC
Rosa vs CornolleMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight
NK
AP
Klein vs PulyaevPreliminary Card · Middleweight
RV
TG
Vieira vs GorePreliminary Card · Catchweight
RN
NF
Nakamura vs FletcherPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
MR
CD
Rębecki vs DuncanMain Card · Lightweight
EB
ER
Brener vs RibovicsMain Card · Lightweight
NM
ES
Magny vs SantosMain Card · Welterweight
DS
KV
Silva vs VallejosMain Card · Featherweight
TT
PH
Taira vs Hyun-sungMain Card · Flyweight
AB
JY
Bashi vs YannisPreliminary Card · Featherweight
RE
FB
Estevam vs BunesPreliminary Card · Catchweight
PR
KS
Rodríguez vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Rębecki v Duncan
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Rębecki 20-4
VS
15-2 Duncan
5'7"
height
5'10"
155 lb
weight
156 lb
66"
reach
71"
33
age
33
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
4.7
strikes landed / min
4.7
48%
striking accuracy
46%
4.1
strikes absorbed / min
4.0
54%
striking defence
48%
3.8
takedowns / 15 min
3.5
75%
takedown accuracy
37%
45%
takedown defence
33%
0.8
submissions / 15 min
0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TG
The Fight Guy picks Mateusz Rębecki
“I'm gonna go with Mateusz Rębecki to win this fight. I think he's going to be able to get Chris Duncan down and control him.”
The Fight Guy picks Mateusz Rębecki
“I'm gonna go with Mateusz Rębecki to win this fight. I think he's going to be able to get Chris Duncan down and control him.”
LJ
Lucrative James picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“Hyped to see our boy Chris Duncan get the dub this weekend”
Lucrative James picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“Hyped to see our boy Chris Duncan get the dub this weekend”
BM
Bruce Oldham MMA picks Mateusz Rębecki
“Mateusz Rębecki going to go with Mateusz Rębecki to win versus Chris Duncan.”
Bruce Oldham MMA picks Mateusz Rębecki
“Mateusz Rębecki going to go with Mateusz Rębecki to win versus Chris Duncan.”
LM
Luminary MMA picks Mateusz Rębecki
“I'm going to be going with the obvious one here, dude. Mateusz Rębecki should be able to just get this done.”
Luminary MMA picks Mateusz Rębecki
“I'm going to be going with the obvious one here, dude. Mateusz Rębecki should be able to just get this done.”
UT
UFC Predictions Tracker picks Mateusz Rębecki
“52 out of 69 channels for 75%... 15 out of 45 channels going with Mateusz Rębecki for a KO TKO win.”
$1.47
UFC Predictions Tracker picks Mateusz Rębecki
“52 out of 69 channels for 75%... 15 out of 45 channels going with Mateusz Rębecki for a KO TKO win.”
$1.47
YO
YoungPastey picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“My boy Chris Duncan... I think he takes this. Chris Duncan as as an underdog plus 175.”
$2.75
YoungPastey picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“My boy Chris Duncan... I think he takes this. Chris Duncan as as an underdog plus 175.”
$2.75
YO
YoungPastey picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE
“Mateusz Rębecki, this is my dude as well going up against Elves Brener... I think he takes this.”
$2.10
YoungPastey picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE
“Mateusz Rębecki, this is my dude as well going up against Elves Brener... I think he takes this.”
$2.10
FF
Fite Feed picks Chris Duncan
“I am choosing Chris Duncan because I have not chosen Chris Duncan in the past, and it's bit me in the ass.”
Fite Feed picks Chris Duncan
“I am choosing Chris Duncan because I have not chosen Chris Duncan in the past, and it's bit me in the ass.”
US
Uselyis picks Mateusz Rębecki
“Give me Rebecki to get the job done.”
Uselyis picks Mateusz Rębecki
“Give me Rebecki to get the job done.”
MN
Mayo Media Network picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I'm going to pick Duncan here.”
Mayo Media Network picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I'm going to pick Duncan here.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Rębecki20-4
L
Dawson
May '26
L
Klein
Oct '25
L
Duncan
Aug '25
W
Orolbai
Oct '24
L
Ferreira
May '24
Duncan15-2
L
Moicano
Apr '26
W
McKinney
Dec '25
W
Rębecki
Aug '25
W
Vucenic
Mar '25
W
Oki
Sep '24