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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Gaethje v Chandler
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Gaethje 27-5
VS
23-10 Chandler
5'11"
height
5'8"
155 lb
weight
156 lb
70"
reach
72"
37
age
40
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
7.4
strikes landed / min
4.5
57%
striking accuracy
50%
5.8
strikes absorbed / min
4.3
54%
striking defence
43%
0.7
takedowns / 15 min
1.6
34%
takedown accuracy
37%
68%
takedown defence
63%
0.2
submissions / 15 min
0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
KU
Kunath picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“at 8 900 you have Justin Gaethje it's a great play he's very live for a finish here i think he's got the chin cardio leg kick advantage over Michael Chandler”
Kunath picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“at 8 900 you have Justin Gaethje it's a great play he's very live for a finish here i think he's got the chin cardio leg kick advantage over Michael Chandler”
WP
We Want Picks picks Michael Chandler VALUE
“i like uh i like Michael Chandler at the plus money and at the better value in draftkings”
We Want Picks picks Michael Chandler VALUE
“i like uh i like Michael Chandler at the plus money and at the better value in draftkings”
WP
We Want Picks picks Justin Gaethje
“i think one of these fights gage is not gonna be able to take shots like he's been doing”
$90.00
We Want Picks picks Justin Gaethje
“i think one of these fights gage is not gonna be able to take shots like he's been doing”
$90.00
AM
Artem MMA picks Michael Chandler
“i've got Michael Chandler i think he's gonna get the job done”
Artem MMA picks Michael Chandler
“i've got Michael Chandler i think he's gonna get the job done”
AV
Alexander Volkanovski picks Michael Chandler VALUE
“i'm expecting this to be a stand-up wall and a fun one ... i think that will favor gate even though uh channel is still very explosive ... i feel like uh gaitre will be able to wear wear the shots and uh and get the win ... so that is my pick for that fight ... so i think that will favor gate”
Alexander Volkanovski picks Michael Chandler VALUE
“i'm expecting this to be a stand-up wall and a fun one ... i think that will favor gate even though uh channel is still very explosive ... i feel like uh gaitre will be able to wear wear the shots and uh and get the win ... so that is my pick for that fight ... so i think that will favor gate”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Michael Chandler VALUE
“i'mma roll the gate she bro you won the [ __ ] war with tony ferguson beat the [ __ ] out of him he beat barboza before you know what i'm saying i mean justin gates last fight he lost a could be come on now this could be you know what's undefeated so i mean like look at the names he's lost to like like all right so i'm i'm gonna give you a rundown of all right so he lost to khabib but he uh he got submitted before that tko uh in the fifth round to tony ferguson tko to cowboys cowboy cerrone first round uh before that edson barboza ko knockout james vic ko first round punch then he loses on tko to justin poirier in the fourth round those are big names those are those are legitimate legitimate opponents to lose too late yeah for sure like he's an elite he's an elite wrestler he's an elite fighter in that uh wait in that weight class in the middleweight definitely and i i mean come on we just engaged he deserved a tough shot a long time ago so you know what i really think he's going to win this fight this saturday he's a big favorite no super big but doesn't that could be when the title shot it was yeah so he got it but it just it's just impossible to beat the [ __ ] you know exactly amanda like so yeah i got just engaged to be in Michael Chandler what you got man i just i got it one of them knocking one i think just just in case he's knocking him out hell yeah yeah i think so uh and like it's not it's it's a three-round fight they agreed they're gonna be going at it they're going to work yeah i don't see it's not gonna go to the decision yeah i don't i don't see it if it goes to the decision i'll be shocked like even like even like even if just engaged she gets on that grounding pound even a little bit and if you're like you know i could see you know you gotta win that fight yeah get more money if you win let's go we both got gay [ __ ] let's get it yeah the gate what round do you think he gets man maybe third two three right i'm thinking third yeah i wanna say third all right let's go”
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Michael Chandler VALUE
“i'mma roll the gate she bro you won the [ __ ] war with tony ferguson beat the [ __ ] out of him he beat barboza before you know what i'm saying i mean justin gates last fight he lost a could be come on now this could be you know what's undefeated so i mean like look at the names he's lost to like like all right so i'm i'm gonna give you a rundown of all right so he lost to khabib but he uh he got submitted before that tko uh in the fifth round to tony ferguson tko to cowboys cowboy cerrone first round uh before that edson barboza ko knockout james vic ko first round punch then he loses on tko to justin poirier in the fourth round those are big names those are those are legitimate legitimate opponents to lose too late yeah for sure like he's an elite he's an elite wrestler he's an elite fighter in that uh wait in that weight class in the middleweight definitely and i i mean come on we just engaged he deserved a tough shot a long time ago so you know what i really think he's going to win this fight this saturday he's a big favorite no super big but doesn't that could be when the title shot it was yeah so he got it but it just it's just impossible to beat the [ __ ] you know exactly amanda like so yeah i got just engaged to be in Michael Chandler what you got man i just i got it one of them knocking one i think just just in case he's knocking him out hell yeah yeah i think so uh and like it's not it's it's a three-round fight they agreed they're gonna be going at it they're going to work yeah i don't see it's not gonna go to the decision yeah i don't i don't see it if it goes to the decision i'll be shocked like even like even like even if just engaged she gets on that grounding pound even a little bit and if you're like you know i could see you know you gotta win that fight yeah get more money if you win let's go we both got gay [ __ ] let's get it yeah the gate what round do you think he gets man maybe third two three right i'm thinking third yeah i wanna say third all right let's go”
MJ
MMA JOEY picks Justin Gaethje
“i want Kamaru Usmangeichi and Zhang Weili to win”
MMA JOEY picks Justin Gaethje
“i want Kamaru Usmangeichi and Zhang Weili to win”
WP
We Want Picks picks Michael Chandler VALUE
“i'm gonna pick Michael Chandler”
We Want Picks picks Michael Chandler VALUE
“i'm gonna pick Michael Chandler”
WP
We Want Picks picks Justin Gaethje
“i like watched the Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler breakdown you nailed it”
We Want Picks picks Justin Gaethje
“i like watched the Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler breakdown you nailed it”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Gaethje27-5
W
Topuria
Jun '26
W
Pimblett
Jan '26
W
Fiziev
Mar '25
L
Holloway
Apr '24
W
Poirier
Jul '23
Chandler23-10
L
Ruffy
Jun '26
L
Pimblett
Apr '25
L
Oliveira
Nov '24
L
Poirier
Nov '22
W
Ferguson
May '22