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CC
Usman vs CovingtonMain Card · Welterweight
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Baghdasaryan vs SouzaEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
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CV
Osbourne vs VergaraEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
CC
Usman vs CovingtonMain Card · Welterweight
RN
ZW
Namajunas vs WeiliMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
MV
FE
Vera vs EdgarMain Card · Bantamweight
SB
BQ
Burgos vs QuarantilloMain Card · Featherweight
JG
MC
Gaethje vs ChandlerMain Card · Lightweight
AP
AM
Pereira vs MichailidisPreliminary Card · Middleweight
BG
AI
Green vs IaquintaPreliminary Card · Lightweight
CC
PH
Curtis vs HawesPreliminary Card · Middleweight
NI
ES
Imavov vs ShahbazyanPreliminary Card · Middleweight
IG
JW
Garry vs WilliamsEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
CB
GV
Barnett vs VillanteEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
DJ
JA
Jacoby vs AllanEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
MB
BS
Baghdasaryan vs SouzaEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
OO
CV
Osbourne vs VergaraEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Usman v Covington
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Usman 20-4
VS
17-4 Covington
6'0"
height
5'11"
171 lb
weight
171 lb
76"
reach
72"
39
age
38
Switch
stance
Orthodox
4.4
strikes landed / min
3.9
52%
striking accuracy
38%
2.7
strikes absorbed / min
3.0
54%
striking defence
55%
2.8
takedowns / 15 min
3.8
45%
takedown accuracy
44%
89%
takedown defence
67%
0.1
submissions / 15 min
0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
KU
Kunath picks Colby Covington VALUE
“i am taking a shot on Colby Covington to win this fight”
Kunath picks Colby Covington VALUE
“i am taking a shot on Colby Covington to win this fight”
WP
We Want Picks picks Colby Covington
“he's going to be on his back the whole fight you're really picking Colby Covington yes”
We Want Picks picks Colby Covington
“he's going to be on his back the whole fight you're really picking Colby Covington yes”
WP
We Want Picks picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“i'd rather spend 93 on Kamaru Usman i disagree who has five rounds to work with and look at the numbers”
$94.00
We Want Picks picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“i'd rather spend 93 on Kamaru Usman i disagree who has five rounds to work with and look at the numbers”
$94.00
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Kamaru Usman
“we've gone the full 25 minutes and still Kamaru Usman”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Kamaru Usman
“we've gone the full 25 minutes and still Kamaru Usman”
WP
We Want Picks picks Colby Covington VALUE
“so i'm going less less yeah he should so Colby Covington's the on paper the better wrestler because he wrestled d1 and Kamaru Usman did not wrestle d1... i think he comes in grab grapple heavy so i'm going less less”
We Want Picks picks Colby Covington VALUE
“so i'm going less less yeah he should so Colby Covington's the on paper the better wrestler because he wrestled d1 and Kamaru Usman did not wrestle d1... i think he comes in grab grapple heavy so i'm going less less”
AM
Artem MMA picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“Kamaru Usman by knockout as well”
Artem MMA picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“Kamaru Usman by knockout as well”
AV
Alexander Volkanovski picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“i have to take a pic and it's gonna be Kamaru Usman ... i'm gonna say a decision as well i think it's gonna be a decision”
Alexander Volkanovski picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“i have to take a pic and it's gonna be Kamaru Usman ... i'm gonna say a decision as well i think it's gonna be a decision”
TC
The W.A.D.E. Concept picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“i really could i could see camaro finishing him again”
The W.A.D.E. Concept picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“i really could i could see camaro finishing him again”
WP
We Want Picks picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“i gotta go with Kamaru Usman here Kamaru Usman's the pick to win the rematch”
We Want Picks picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“i gotta go with Kamaru Usman here Kamaru Usman's the pick to win the rematch”
WP
We Want Picks picks Colby Covington VALUE
“i'm going Colby Covington i just i just feel like Colby Covington's gonna come in he's gonna make the adjustments i think there's more wrestling i don't think Kamaru Usman wants to wrestle i think he can but i think Colby Covington's going to be the offensive wrestler in this fight i think he's going to use his volume i think he's going to you know he's not going to get in those little pocket punches that he's getting caught with that last fight he's in and out he's going to trust his cardio and i think Colby Covington wins a you know a razor razor thin uh uh decision”
We Want Picks picks Colby Covington VALUE
“i'm going Colby Covington i just i just feel like Colby Covington's gonna come in he's gonna make the adjustments i think there's more wrestling i don't think Kamaru Usman wants to wrestle i think he can but i think Colby Covington's going to be the offensive wrestler in this fight i think he's going to use his volume i think he's going to you know he's not going to get in those little pocket punches that he's getting caught with that last fight he's in and out he's going to trust his cardio and i think Colby Covington wins a you know a razor razor thin uh uh decision”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Usman20-4
W
Buckley
Jun '25
L
Chimaev
Oct '23
L
Edwards
Mar '23
L
Edwards
Aug '22
W
Covington
Nov '21
Covington17-4
L
Buckley
Dec '24
L
Edwards
Dec '23
W
Masvidal
Mar '22
L
Usman
Nov '21
W
Woodley
Sep '20