MMA Prophecy
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UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
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CO DP Oliveira vs PoirierMain Card · Lightweight JP AN Peña vs NunesMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight GN SP Neal vs PonzinibbioMain Card · Welterweight KK CG Kara-France vs GarbrandtMain Card · Flyweight SO RP O'Malley vs PaivaMain Card · Bantamweight JE DI Emmett vs IgePreliminary Card · Featherweight DC PM Cruz vs MunhozPreliminary Card · Bantamweight TT AS Tuivasa vs SakaiPreliminary Card · Heavyweight BS JW Silva vs WrightPreliminary Card · Middleweight AM EA Muniz vs AndersEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight EB MM Blanchfield vs MaverickEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight RH DM Hall vs MinnerEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight TK RC Kelley vs CostaEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight GR PC Robertson vs CachoeiraEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read O'Malley v Paiva Bantamweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus7 picks · conf 21/99
O'Malley 7
0 Paiva
MMSWTD pick O'Malley
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
O'Malley 19-3 VS 21-5 Paiva
5'11" height —
135 lb weight —
72" reach —
31 age 30
Switch stance Orthodox
5.4 strikes landed / min 4.1
55% striking accuracy 42%
3.7 strikes absorbed / min 5.0
56% striking defence 48%
0.2 takedowns / 15 min 0.7
33% takedown accuracy 23%
82% takedown defence 77%
0.2 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TM The MMA-Holes picks Sean O'Malley VALUE “i think Sean O'Malley's gonna just win by a um so i'm gonna go Sean O'Malley by got shawnee Sean O'Malley for the win”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Sean O'Malley VALUE “i think Sean O'Malley gets to knock out in the first or second round here” $1.36
WP We Want Picks picks Sean O'Malley VALUE “I like the less less here”
WP We Want Picks picks Sean O'Malley VALUE “i think this is tailor mail made for Sean O'Malley just crack ruling as he comes rushing in”
SH Sherdog.com picks Sean O'Malley VALUE “Raulian Paiva's plus 245 Sean O'Malley minus 290 i think that's just about right as well” $1.34
AV Alexander Volkanovski picks Sean O'Malley VALUE “i feel like this is definitely a an easy win for for Sean O'Malley”
WP We Want Picks picks Sean O'Malley VALUE “you can you know with Sean O'Malley here” $1.32
DR Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Sean O'Malley VALUE “I like the look of Sean O'Malley”
MJ MMA JOEY picks Raulian Paiva “Sean O'Malley versus Raulian Paiva”
MJ MMA JOEY picks Sean O'Malley “i'm going sean Sean O'Malley i think Sean O'Malley stops him via tko”
Recent form last five, most recent first
O'Malley19-3
W Zahabi KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
W Yadong Decision · R3 Jan '26
L Dvalishvili Submission · R3 Jun '25
L Dvalishvili Decision · R5 Sep '24
W Vera Decision · R5 Mar '24
Paiva21-5
L Morozov Decision · R3 Jun '22
L O'Malley KO/TKO · R1 Dec '21
W Phillips Decision · R3 Jul '21
W Zhumagulov Decision · R3 Jul '20
W Rosa KO/TKO · R2 Feb '20