SHARP SIGNAL
UFC Freedom 250 poster
FREEDOM 250
14
JUN
2026
VS
Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane
UFC Freedom 250

UFC Freedom 250

2026-06-14 / Washington, D.C. , U.S.
7 priced fights. 7 bet candidates. Market prices are compared against blended crowd, ROI cohort, and specialist fair odds.
7 Bet candidates
3 High conviction
0 Prop edges
15.5% Avg edge
201 Signal inputs
PROP RADAR

Method props from channel picks and Polymarket

48 method picks 0 Polymarket prices
No positive Polymarket method-prop edges are available for this event yet.
DECISION QUEUE

7 fights - sorted by edge

SORT
01 Alex Pereira 13-3-0 VS Ciryl Gane 13-2-0 Bet Alex Pereira 38.6% Edge $1.95 fair $1.41 Prop edge Alex Pereira by KO/TKO Fair $2.00 +
DECIMAL ODDS - MODEL FAIR BY SOURCE
Crowd odds
$1.42
70.6% implied
17 crowd picks
ROI Top 10% odds
$1.48
67.7% implied
3 ROI picks
Specialist odds
$1.30
76.6% implied
5 specialist picks
Blended odds
$1.41
71.1% implied
normalised comparison line
MODEL WEIGHT BLEND - FAIR $1.41
Crowd 47.2%
ROI Top 10% 30.1%
Specialists 22.8%
Blended fair $1.41 71.1% implied
Best bookmaker $1.95
Edge vs book 38.6% best price compared with blended fair
Models aligned on Alex Pereira
US $1.95 / $1.91
US2 $1.91 / $1.91
AU $1.95 / $1.95
UK $1.90 / $1.91
EU $1.95 / $1.92
PROP BETS - METHOD MARKET
6 extracted method picks
KO Alex Pereira by KO/TKO 3 picks / fair $2.00
KO Alex Pereira by KO/TKO 3 picks Fair $2.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
DEC Ciryl Gane by Decision 3 picks Fair $2.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
MOST INFLUENTIAL CHANNELS
Ranked by actual influence in the blended line
Lucrative James Stance: orthodox wt 4.25 ROI cohort + Specialists 12.2% Specialty ROI 64.6% acc 164 specialty bets
Artem MMA Vs striker wt 4.23 ROI cohort + Specialists 16.7% Specialty ROI 69.0% acc 71 specialty bets
Fight Fiend Forecast Vs striker wt 3.91 ROI cohort + Specialists 19.7% Specialty ROI 67.3% acc 104 specialty bets
MMA EXPERTS Vs striker wt 1.94 Specialists 3.1% Specialty ROI 64.4% acc 160 specialty bets
Fight Night Picks Stance: orthodox wt 1.63 Specialists 2.0% Specialty ROI 61.0% acc 223 specialty bets
RECOMMENDED BET
Alex Pereira
Heavyweight / Fight card
$1.95
Best odds
38.6%
Edge
25
Specialist picks
Best at →
02 Sean O'Malley 19-3-0 VS Aiemann Zahabi 14-2-0 Bet Sean O'Malley 17.9% Edge $1.24 fair $1.05 Prop edge Sean O'Malley by Decision Fair $1.50 +
DECIMAL ODDS - MODEL FAIR BY SOURCE
Crowd odds
$1.12
88.9% implied
18 crowd picks
ROI Top 10% odds
$1.00
100.0% implied
4 ROI picks
Specialist odds
$1.00
100.0% implied
7 specialist picks
Blended odds
$1.05
95.1% implied
normalised comparison line
MODEL WEIGHT BLEND - FAIR $1.05
Crowd 43.9%
ROI Top 10% 31.4%
Specialists 24.7%
Blended fair $1.05 95.1% implied
Best bookmaker $1.24
Edge vs book 17.9% best price compared with blended fair
Models aligned on Sean O'Malley
US $1.23 / $4.50
US2 $1.24 / $4.30
AU $1.25 / $4.50
UK $1.25 / $4.50
EU $1.26 / $4.45
PROP BETS - METHOD MARKET
9 extracted method picks
DEC Sean O'Malley by Decision 6 picks / fair $1.50
DEC Sean O'Malley by Decision 6 picks Fair $1.50 Polymarket - Edge -%
KO Sean O'Malley by KO/TKO 3 picks Fair $3.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
MOST INFLUENTIAL CHANNELS
Ranked by actual influence in the blended line
Artem MMA Stance: switch wt 4.21 ROI cohort + Specialists 15.6% Specialty ROI 66.2% acc 71 specialty bets
Fight Fiend Forecast Weight class: Bantamweight wt 3.80 ROI cohort + Specialists 10.4% Specialty ROI 60.0% acc 60 specialty bets
Lucrative James ROI cohort pick: Sean O'Malley wt 3.77 ROI cohort + Specialists 6.3% ROI cohort ROI 62.6% acc 246 history bets
138 MMA Weight class: Bantamweight wt 2.09 Specialists 29.3% Specialty ROI 81.0% acc 42 specialty bets
MMA EXPERTS Stance: switch wt 2.04 Specialists 8.5% Specialty ROI 67.0% acc 97 specialty bets
DFS BY THE NUMBERS Weight class: Bantamweight wt 1.82 Specialists 13.6% Specialty ROI 64.4% acc 59 specialty bets
RECOMMENDED BET
Sean O'Malley
Bantamweight / Fight card
$1.24
Best odds
17.9%
Edge
29
Specialist picks
Best at →
03 Ilia Topuria 17-0-0 VS Justin Gaethje 27-5-0 Bet Ilia Topuria 13.8% Edge $1.19 fair $1.05 Prop edge Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO Fair $1.17 +
DECIMAL ODDS - MODEL FAIR BY SOURCE
Crowd odds
$1.11
90.0% implied
20 crowd picks
ROI Top 10% odds
$1.00
100.0% implied
4 ROI picks
Specialist odds
$1.00
100.0% implied
8 specialist picks
Blended odds
$1.05
95.6% implied
normalised comparison line
MODEL WEIGHT BLEND - FAIR $1.05
Crowd 44.1%
ROI Top 10% 29.9%
Specialists 25.9%
Blended fair $1.05 95.6% implied
Best bookmaker $1.19
Edge vs book 13.8% best price compared with blended fair
Models aligned on Ilia Topuria
US $1.19 / $5.60
US2 $1.17 / $5.60
AU $1.18 / $5.75
UK $1.17 / $5.60
EU $1.23 / $5.60
PROP BETS - METHOD MARKET
7 extracted method picks
KO Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO 6 picks / fair $1.17
KO Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO 6 picks Fair $1.17 Polymarket - Edge -%
SUB Ilia Topuria by Submission 1 picks Fair $7.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
MOST INFLUENTIAL CHANNELS
Ranked by actual influence in the blended line
Artem MMA Vs striker wt 4.61 ROI cohort + Specialists 16.7% Specialty ROI 69.0% acc 71 specialty bets
Fight Fiend Forecast Vs striker wt 3.88 ROI cohort + Specialists 19.7% Specialty ROI 67.3% acc 104 specialty bets
Lucrative James Stance: orthodox wt 3.74 ROI cohort + Specialists 12.2% Specialty ROI 64.6% acc 164 specialty bets
Kunath Style: grappler wt 3.21 ROI cohort + Specialists 6.9% Specialty ROI 62.3% acc 146 specialty bets
MMA EXPERTS Style: grappler wt 1.93 Specialists 5.7% Specialty ROI 66.1% acc 431 specialty bets
138 MMA Favorites <= 1.14 wt 1.88 Specialists 2.1% Specialty ROI 74.1% acc 239 specialty bets
RECOMMENDED BET
Ilia Topuria
Lightweight / Fight card
$1.19
Best odds
13.8%
Edge
32
Specialist picks
Best at →
04 Maurício Ruffy 13-2-0 VS Michael Chandler 23-10-0 Bet Maurício Ruffy 13.2% Edge $1.16 fair $1.03 Prop edge Maurício Ruffy by KO/TKO Fair $1.00 +
DECIMAL ODDS - MODEL FAIR BY SOURCE
Crowd odds
$1.06
94.4% implied
18 crowd picks
ROI Top 10% odds
$1.00
100.0% implied
4 ROI picks
Specialist odds
$1.00
100.0% implied
7 specialist picks
Blended odds
$1.03
97.6% implied
normalised comparison line
MODEL WEIGHT BLEND - FAIR $1.03
Crowd 43.9%
ROI Top 10% 31.4%
Specialists 24.7%
Blended fair $1.03 97.6% implied
Best bookmaker $1.16
Edge vs book 13.2% best price compared with blended fair
Models aligned on Maurício Ruffy
US $1.16 / $6.50
US2 $1.16 / $5.50
AU $1.18 / $6.20
UK $1.17 / $6.10
EU $1.16 / $6.70
PROP BETS - METHOD MARKET
4 extracted method picks
KO Maurício Ruffy by KO/TKO 4 picks / fair $1.00
KO Maurício Ruffy by KO/TKO 4 picks Fair $1.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
MOST INFLUENTIAL CHANNELS
Ranked by actual influence in the blended line
Artem MMA Stance: orthodox wt 4.46 ROI cohort + Specialists 9.8% Specialty ROI 65.5% acc 354 specialty bets
Lucrative James Stance: orthodox wt 3.68 ROI cohort + Specialists 12.2% Specialty ROI 64.6% acc 164 specialty bets
Fight Fiend Forecast Favorites <= 1.16 wt 3.67 ROI cohort + Specialists 5.9% Specialty ROI 76.7% acc 288 specialty bets
Kunath ROI cohort pick: Maurício Ruffy wt 3.16 ROI cohort + Specialists 0.4% ROI cohort ROI 57.5% acc 320 history bets
138 MMA Favorites <= 1.16 wt 2.05 Specialists 2.1% Specialty ROI 74.1% acc 239 specialty bets
MMA EXPERTS Weight class: Lightweight wt 1.86 Specialists 2.4% Specialty ROI 60.0% acc 110 specialty bets
RECOMMENDED BET
Maurício Ruffy
Lightweight / Fight card
$1.16
Best odds
13.2%
Edge
29
Specialist picks
Best at →
05 Bo Nickal 8-1-0 VS Kyle Daukaus 17-4-0 Bet Bo Nickal 10.8% Edge $1.31 fair $1.18 Prop edge Bo Nickal by Decision Fair $1.50 +
DECIMAL ODDS - MODEL FAIR BY SOURCE
Crowd odds
$1.27
78.9% implied
19 crowd picks
ROI Top 10% odds
$1.00
100.0% implied
4 ROI picks
Specialist odds
$1.32
76.0% implied
8 specialist picks
Blended odds
$1.18
84.5% implied
normalised comparison line
MODEL WEIGHT BLEND - FAIR $1.18
Crowd 43.5%
ROI Top 10% 30.3%
Specialists 26.2%
Blended fair $1.18 84.5% implied
Best bookmaker $1.31
Edge vs book 10.8% best price compared with blended fair
Models aligned on Bo Nickal
US $1.30 / $4.00
US2 $1.31 / $3.65
AU $1.32 / $3.90
UK $1.33 / $3.65
EU $1.30 / $3.80
PROP BETS - METHOD MARKET
9 extracted method picks
DEC Bo Nickal by Decision 6 picks / fair $1.50
DEC Bo Nickal by Decision 6 picks Fair $1.50 Polymarket - Edge -%
SUB Bo Nickal by Submission 3 picks Fair $3.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
MOST INFLUENTIAL CHANNELS
Ranked by actual influence in the blended line
Artem MMA Style: grappler wt 4.37 ROI cohort + Specialists 14.8% Specialty ROI 67.7% acc 257 specialty bets
Fight Fiend Forecast Stance: southpaw wt 3.78 ROI cohort + Specialists 7.9% Specialty ROI 64.6% acc 99 specialty bets
Lucrative James Style: grappler wt 3.72 ROI cohort + Specialists 6.8% Specialty ROI 61.9% acc 126 specialty bets
Kunath Style: grappler wt 3.05 ROI cohort + Specialists 6.9% Specialty ROI 62.3% acc 146 specialty bets
MMA EXPERTS Weight class: Middleweight wt 2.07 Specialists 11.5% Specialty ROI 69.6% acc 115 specialty bets
138 MMA Favorites <= 1.30 wt 1.77 Specialists 2.1% Specialty ROI 74.1% acc 239 specialty bets
RECOMMENDED BET
Bo Nickal
Middleweight / Fight card
$1.31
Best odds
10.8%
Edge
31
Specialist picks
Best at →
06 Josh Hokit 9-0-0 VS Derrick Lewis 29-13-0 Bet Derrick Lewis 9.8% Edge $4.50 fair $4.10 Prop edge Josh Hokit by KO/TKO Fair $1.33 +
DECIMAL ODDS - MODEL FAIR BY SOURCE
Crowd odds
$3.40
29.4% implied
17 crowd picks
ROI Top 10% odds
$4.19
23.9% implied
4 ROI picks
Specialist odds
$6.50
15.4% implied
6 specialist picks
Blended odds
$4.10
24.4% implied
normalised comparison line
MODEL WEIGHT BLEND - FAIR $4.10
Crowd 44.5%
ROI Top 10% 32.7%
Specialists 22.8%
Blended fair $4.10 24.4% implied
Best bookmaker $4.50
Edge vs book 9.8% best price compared with blended fair
Models aligned on Derrick Lewis
US $1.27 / $4.50
US2 $1.27 / $4.10
AU $1.28 / $4.25
UK $1.29 / $4.25
EU $1.28 / $4.45
PROP BETS - METHOD MARKET
8 extracted method picks
KO Josh Hokit by KO/TKO 6 picks / fair $1.33
KO Josh Hokit by KO/TKO 6 picks Fair $1.33 Polymarket - Edge -%
DEC Josh Hokit by Decision 1 picks Fair $8.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
KO Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO 1 picks Fair $8.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
MOST INFLUENTIAL CHANNELS
Ranked by actual influence in the blended line
Artem MMA Weight class: Heavyweight wt 4.34 ROI cohort + Specialists 11.4% Specialty ROI 72.2% acc 36 specialty bets
Lucrative James Stance: orthodox wt 3.81 ROI cohort + Specialists 12.2% Specialty ROI 64.6% acc 164 specialty bets
Fight Fiend Forecast Stance: orthodox wt 3.45 ROI cohort + Specialists 3.3% Specialty ROI 62.0% acc 361 specialty bets
Kunath ROI cohort pick: Josh Hokit wt 3.16 ROI cohort + Specialists 0.4% ROI cohort ROI 57.5% acc 320 history bets
MMA EXPERTS Favorites <= 1.27 wt 2.06 Specialists 1.2% Specialty ROI 74.9% acc 494 specialty bets
Fight Night Picks Stance: orthodox wt 1.58 Specialists 2.0% Specialty ROI 61.0% acc 223 specialty bets
RECOMMENDED BET
Derrick Lewis
Heavyweight / Fight card
$4.50
Best odds
9.8%
Edge
27
Specialist picks
Best at →
07 Diego Lopes 27-8-0 VS Steve Garcia 19-5-0 Bet Steve Garcia 4.5% Edge $2.44 fair $2.33 Prop edge Steve Garcia by KO/TKO Fair $2.50 +
DECIMAL ODDS - MODEL FAIR BY SOURCE
Crowd odds
$2.12
47.1% implied
17 crowd picks
ROI Top 10% odds
$2.33
43.0% implied
4 ROI picks
Specialist odds
$2.79
35.8% implied
7 specialist picks
Blended odds
$2.33
42.8% implied
normalised comparison line
MODEL WEIGHT BLEND - FAIR $2.33
Crowd 40.8%
ROI Top 10% 34.1%
Specialists 25.1%
Blended fair $2.33 42.8% implied
Best bookmaker $2.44
Edge vs book 4.5% best price compared with blended fair
Models aligned on Steve Garcia
US $1.65 / $2.44
US2 $1.62 / $2.32
AU $1.63 / $2.46
UK $1.62 / $2.38
EU $1.62 / $2.50
PROP BETS - METHOD MARKET
5 extracted method picks
KO Steve Garcia by KO/TKO 2 picks / fair $2.50
KO Steve Garcia by KO/TKO 2 picks Fair $2.50 Polymarket - Edge -%
DEC Diego Lopes by Decision 1 picks Fair $5.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
KO Diego Lopes by KO/TKO 1 picks Fair $5.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
DEC Steve Garcia by Decision 1 picks Fair $5.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
MOST INFLUENTIAL CHANNELS
Ranked by actual influence in the blended line
Artem MMA Vs striker wt 4.44 ROI cohort + Specialists 16.7% Specialty ROI 69.0% acc 71 specialty bets
Lucrative James Stance: orthodox wt 3.90 ROI cohort + Specialists 12.2% Specialty ROI 64.6% acc 164 specialty bets
Fight Fiend Forecast Weight class: Featherweight wt 3.58 ROI cohort + Specialists 12.7% Specialty ROI 65.5% acc 55 specialty bets
MMA EXPERTS Style: grappler wt 2.03 Specialists 5.7% Specialty ROI 66.1% acc 431 specialty bets
DFS BY THE NUMBERS Weight class: Featherweight wt 1.66 Specialists 7.6% Specialty ROI 59.1% acc 66 specialty bets
138 MMA Weight class: Featherweight wt 1.44 Specialists 1.9% Specialty ROI 59.5% acc 42 specialty bets
RECOMMENDED BET
Steve Garcia
Featherweight / Fight card
$2.44
Best odds
4.5%
Edge
28
Specialist picks
Best at →
HISTORICAL PROOF Backtest validation/Loading Compact proof
STRATEGY ROI COMPARISON
ROI TOP 10% vs SPECIALISTS - CUMULATIVE UNITS