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UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
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CO JG Oliveira vs GaethjeMain Card · Lightweight CE RN Esparza vs NamajunasMain Card · Women'S Strawweight MC TF Chandler vs FergusonMain Card · Lightweight OP MR Preux vs RuaMain Card · Light Heavyweight RB KW Brown vs WilliamsMain Card · Welterweight FT DR Trinaldo vs RobertsPreliminary Card · Welterweight MC ND Chiasson vs DumontPreliminary Card · Catchweight BR MS Royval vs SchnellPreliminary Card · Flyweight BI ML Ivanov vs LimaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight AF CV Fialho vs VanCampEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight TC MG Cortez vs GattoEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight CV KR Vergara vs RodriguesEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight LG AC Godinez vs CarnelossiEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JN FG Newson vs GarciaEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Oliveira v Gaethje Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus12 picks · conf 32/99
Oliveira 10
2 Gaethje
ACDWWD pick Oliveira
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Oliveira 36-11 VS 27-5 Gaethje
5'10" height 5'11"
156 lb weight 155 lb
74" reach 70"
36 age 37
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.7 strikes landed / min 7.4
48% striking accuracy 57%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 5.8
53% striking defence 54%
1.4 takedowns / 15 min 0.7
44% takedown accuracy 34%
57% takedown defence 68%
2.1 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks Justin Gaethje VALUE “i am given a slight lean towards Justin Gaethje here”
DS Dynes Sports picks Charles Oliveira VALUE $1.59
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Charles Oliveira VALUE “Charles Oliveira getting clipped and knocked out”
HB Half The Battle picks Justin Gaethje VALUE “i pulled the trigger on Justin Gaethje yeah plus 152 on fanduel so i am backing the underdog here” $2.52
CL Clenbat picks Charles Oliveira “every single time Charles Oliveira fights and every single time Justin Gaethje fights it is an absolute banger just like what i was talking about with Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje you take two fighters that are always exciting put them together you'll get something fantastic that's why we got Justin Gaethje gaichy versus Michael Chandler how exciting that was right”
CM Cyclone MMA picks Justin Gaethje VALUE “i think Justin Gaethje gets it done”
CM Cyclone MMA picks Charles Oliveira VALUE “i have Charles Oliveira winning this fight”
ST Stephen Wonderboy Thompson picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
AV Alexander Volkanovski picks Charles Oliveira VALUE “Charles Oliveira is a favorite”
WP We Want Picks picks Justin Gaethje VALUE “i think Justin Gaethje wins this fight even though Charles Oliveira is the far better fighter”
WP We Want Picks picks Charles Oliveira VALUE “i gotta go with joe lauzon and the underdog until donald shows me something”
WI WEIGHING IN picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
Recent form last five, most recent first
Oliveira36-11
W Holloway Decision · R5 Mar '26
W Gamrot Submission · R2 Oct '25
L Topuria KO/TKO · R1 Jun '25
W Chandler Decision · R5 Nov '24
L Tsarukyan Decision · R3 Apr '24
Gaethje27-5
W Topuria KO/TKO · R4 Jun '26
W Pimblett Decision · R5 Jan '26
W Fiziev Decision · R3 Mar '25
L Holloway KO/TKO · R5 Apr '24
W Poirier KO/TKO · R2 Jul '23