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Oliveira vs GaethjeMain Card · Lightweight
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Oliveira vs GaethjeMain Card · Lightweight
CE
RN
Esparza vs NamajunasMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
MC
TF
Chandler vs FergusonMain Card · Lightweight
OP
MR
Preux vs RuaMain Card · Light Heavyweight
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KW
Brown vs WilliamsMain Card · Welterweight
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DR
Trinaldo vs RobertsPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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ND
Chiasson vs DumontPreliminary Card · Catchweight
BR
MS
Royval vs SchnellPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Ivanov vs LimaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
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Fialho vs VanCampEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
TC
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Cortez vs GattoEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Vergara vs RodriguesEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
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Godinez vs CarnelossiEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Newson vs GarciaEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Oliveira v Gaethje
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Oliveira 36-11
VS
27-5 Gaethje
5'10"
height
5'11"
156 lb
weight
155 lb
74"
reach
70"
36
age
37
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
3.7
strikes landed / min
7.4
48%
striking accuracy
57%
3.3
strikes absorbed / min
5.8
53%
striking defence
54%
1.4
takedowns / 15 min
0.7
44%
takedown accuracy
34%
57%
takedown defence
68%
2.1
submissions / 15 min
0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
We Want Picks picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“i am given a slight lean towards Justin Gaethje here”
We Want Picks picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“i am given a slight lean towards Justin Gaethje here”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
“Charles Oliveira getting clipped and knocked out”
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
“Charles Oliveira getting clipped and knocked out”
HB
Half The Battle picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“i pulled the trigger on Justin Gaethje yeah plus 152 on fanduel so i am backing the underdog here”
$2.52
Half The Battle picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“i pulled the trigger on Justin Gaethje yeah plus 152 on fanduel so i am backing the underdog here”
$2.52
CL
Clenbat picks Charles Oliveira
“every single time Charles Oliveira fights and every single time Justin Gaethje fights it is an absolute banger just like what i was talking about with Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje you take two fighters that are always exciting put them together you'll get something fantastic that's why we got Justin Gaethje gaichy versus Michael Chandler how exciting that was right”
Clenbat picks Charles Oliveira
“every single time Charles Oliveira fights and every single time Justin Gaethje fights it is an absolute banger just like what i was talking about with Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje you take two fighters that are always exciting put them together you'll get something fantastic that's why we got Justin Gaethje gaichy versus Michael Chandler how exciting that was right”
CM
Cyclone MMA picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“i think Justin Gaethje gets it done”
Cyclone MMA picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“i think Justin Gaethje gets it done”
CM
Cyclone MMA picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
“i have Charles Oliveira winning this fight”
Cyclone MMA picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
“i have Charles Oliveira winning this fight”
ST
Stephen Wonderboy Thompson picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
Stephen Wonderboy Thompson picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
AV
Alexander Volkanovski picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
“Charles Oliveira is a favorite”
Alexander Volkanovski picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
“Charles Oliveira is a favorite”
WP
We Want Picks picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“i think Justin Gaethje wins this fight even though Charles Oliveira is the far better fighter”
We Want Picks picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“i think Justin Gaethje wins this fight even though Charles Oliveira is the far better fighter”
WP
We Want Picks picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
“i gotta go with joe lauzon and the underdog until donald shows me something”
We Want Picks picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
“i gotta go with joe lauzon and the underdog until donald shows me something”
WI
WEIGHING IN picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
WEIGHING IN picks Charles Oliveira VALUE
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Oliveira36-11
W
Holloway
Mar '26
W
Gamrot
Oct '25
L
Topuria
Jun '25
W
Chandler
Nov '24
L
Tsarukyan
Apr '24
Gaethje27-5
W
Topuria
Jun '26
W
Pimblett
Jan '26
W
Fiziev
Mar '25
L
Holloway
Apr '24
W
Poirier
Jul '23