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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Gastelum v Rodriguez
Middleweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Gastelum 21-10
VS
18-5 Rodriguez
5'9"
height
6'1"
191 lb
weight
170 lb
71"
reach
74"
34
age
39
Southpaw
stance
Southpaw
4.4
strikes landed / min
7.5
52%
striking accuracy
49%
4.9
strikes absorbed / min
5.5
74%
striking defence
58%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
0.6
32%
takedown accuracy
54%
86%
takedown defence
57%
1.2
submissions / 15 min
0.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MJ
MMA JOEY picks Kelvin Gastelum
“Kelvin Gastelumam gets the decision win”
MMA JOEY picks Kelvin Gastelum
“Kelvin Gastelumam gets the decision win”
LM
Leftlane MMA picks Kelvin Gastelum
“I picked Kelvin Gastelum”
Leftlane MMA picks Kelvin Gastelum
“I picked Kelvin Gastelum”
BE
BetSam picks Daniel Rodriguez
“I think that Kelvin gum's going out there he's going to outclass Daniel Rodriguez”
BetSam picks Daniel Rodriguez
“I think that Kelvin gum's going out there he's going to outclass Daniel Rodriguez”
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Daniel Rodriguez
“I went with Daniel Rodriguez”
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Daniel Rodriguez
“I went with Daniel Rodriguez”
BO
Botmfeeder picks Kelvin Gastelum
“you have to pick Calvin gasum specifically because it's like it's his death fight man if he loses his fight he's kicked out of the UFC”
Botmfeeder picks Kelvin Gastelum
“you have to pick Calvin gasum specifically because it's like it's his death fight man if he loses his fight he's kicked out of the UFC”
WT
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I think he wins this fight he probably wins this fight by decision or submission”
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I think he wins this fight he probably wins this fight by decision or submission”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE
“the best play on this fight is Daniel Rodriguez plus three and a half”
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE
“the best play on this fight is Daniel Rodriguez plus three and a half”
CC
Cody's Calls picks Kelvin Gastelum
“I'm still going to pick Kelvin Gastelum here I think he's uh I think he's very good first off um he's fought five five rounds against osia koner um and Daniel Rodriguez Daniel Rodriguez Rodriguez man hasn't really impressed me in the last couple fights um they gave him they rigged the like they rigged the leech uh the Le should should have beat him Ian Gary knocked him out um I'm just not the biggest fan of Daniel Rodriguez man I I think he's on the back part of his career he's 37 um he does have a 3-inch reach up for Kelvin Gastelum but I'm going to side with Kelvin Gastelum Kelvin Gastelum or kelvin Kelvin Gastelum to Still Still to get this one done but that weight Miss is a little scary so take that one with a little grain of salt and yeah I'll take Gast one by TKO”
Cody's Calls picks Kelvin Gastelum
“I'm still going to pick Kelvin Gastelum here I think he's uh I think he's very good first off um he's fought five five rounds against osia koner um and Daniel Rodriguez Daniel Rodriguez Rodriguez man hasn't really impressed me in the last couple fights um they gave him they rigged the like they rigged the leech uh the Le should should have beat him Ian Gary knocked him out um I'm just not the biggest fan of Daniel Rodriguez man I I think he's on the back part of his career he's 37 um he does have a 3-inch reach up for Kelvin Gastelum but I'm going to side with Kelvin Gastelum Kelvin Gastelum or kelvin Kelvin Gastelum to Still Still to get this one done but that weight Miss is a little scary so take that one with a little grain of salt and yeah I'll take Gast one by TKO”
SA
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Kelvin Gastelum
“I have Dr rod in 14% of lineups and Gast in 8%”
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Kelvin Gastelum
“I have Dr rod in 14% of lineups and Gast in 8%”
SA
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Daniel Rodriguez
“if I had to play one side I guess it would be drod”
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Daniel Rodriguez
“if I had to play one side I guess it would be drod”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I've been picking Kelvin Kelvin Gastelum all week”
$1.50
MMA EXPERTS picks Kelvin Gastelum VALUE
“I've been picking Kelvin Kelvin Gastelum all week”
$1.50
TB
Totally Blitzed picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE
“I circled Daniel Rodriguez when I saw him at plus 190 I honestly I like him at these odds he might not win but there's no way that like to put in perspective Sergei Pavlovich is minus 250 for his fight gastam is minus 235 like Serge paic had like speed run through the heavyweight division before he ran into Tom Aspen um like Kevin Gaston was an up and down fighter like you don't know what you're really G to get out of him for you to kind of go in there and think he's gonna win that confidently I kind of like D Rod here”
$2.90
Totally Blitzed picks Daniel Rodriguez VALUE
“I circled Daniel Rodriguez when I saw him at plus 190 I honestly I like him at these odds he might not win but there's no way that like to put in perspective Sergei Pavlovich is minus 250 for his fight gastam is minus 235 like Serge paic had like speed run through the heavyweight division before he ran into Tom Aspen um like Kevin Gaston was an up and down fighter like you don't know what you're really G to get out of him for you to kind of go in there and think he's gonna win that confidently I kind of like D Rod here”
$2.90
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Gastelum21-10
L
Luque
Apr '26
W
Stoltzfus
Sep '25
L
Pyfer
Jun '25
W
Rodriguez
Jun '24
L
Brady
Dec '23
Rodriguez18-5
W
Holland
Jul '25
W
Ponzinibbio
May '25
W
Morono
Oct '24
L
Gastelum
Jun '24
L
Garry
May '23