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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Costa v Fili Featherweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus54 picks · conf 71/99
Costa 14
40 Fili
ECFUTP pick Costa
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Costa 26-7 VS 25-13 Fili
5'10" height 5'11"
145 lb weight 145 lb
71" reach 74"
29 age 36
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.5 strikes landed / min 3.9
46% striking accuracy 37%
2.3 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
58% striking defence 51%
2.5 takedowns / 15 min 2.1
35% takedown accuracy 43%
52% takedown defence 70%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
UG UFC Genie picks Melquizael Costa VALUE “I ended up betting Costa money line Costa KO and sub”
GP Greedo Plays picks Andre Fili “Andre Fili Aiden's going to be out for the foreseeable future which means Donovan kingan will get an extended look”
GM GLO MMA picks Andre Fili VALUE “picking Andre Fili”
BS B ALL N Sports picks Melquizael Costa VALUE $5.50
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Melquizael Costa VALUE “I'm going to go Andre phy ... by decision”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Andre Fili VALUE “so give me Andre phy that's dog number five”
LG Lonzii Gambles picks Andre Fili “give me Andre Fili here I see Mel change his hair I don't know I don't know about the hair change give me yeah give me Andre Fili Andre Fili Andre Fili yeah”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Andre Fili “voy a ir con el histórico con Andre Fili fíjense que acá estoy puro rotf pH me estoy yendo con con los consagrados”
LF Liam Picks Fights picks Andre Fili “I just really don't feel great about a side here closely lined fight um competitive I think either one of these guys could finish”
JO JoDan616 picks Andre Fili “I'm going go Andre Fili again just to keep it kind of brief with this one”
RI RightTakeMMA picks Andre Fili “I'm going to be going with Andre Fili”
PR PredictionStrike picks Melquizael Costa “I'm gonna go with Melquizael Costa here I think he can honestly just trust his hands here Let it Fly”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Costa26-7
L Allen Decision · R5 May '26
W Ige KO/TKO · R1 Feb '26
W Charrière KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Erosa Decision · R3 May '25
W Rodriguez Decision · R3 Mar '25
Fili25-13
L Oliveira KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
L Delgado Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Rodriguez Decision · R3 Aug '25
L Costa Submission · R1 Feb '25
W Swanson Decision · R3 Jun '24